Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills,Marine Policy

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Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills
Marine Policy ( IF 4.315 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104554
Helena M Solo-Gabriele ₁ , Tom Fiddaman ₂ , Cecilie Mauritzen ₃ , Cameron Ainsworth ₄ , David M Abramson ₅ , Igal Berenshtein _{6,

7} , Eric P Chassignet ₈ , Shuyi S Chen ₉ , Robyn N Conmy ₁₀ , Christa D Court ₁₁ , William K Dewar ₁₂ , John W Farrington ₁₃ , Michael G Feldman ₁₄ , Alesia C Ferguson ₁₅ , Elizabeth Fetherston-Resch ₁₆ , Deborah French-McCay ₁₇ , Christine Hale ₁₈ , Ruoying He ₁₉ , Vassiliki H Kourafalou ₆ , Kenneth Lee ₂₀ , Yonggang Liu ₄ , Michelle Masi ₂₁ , Emily S Maung-Douglass ₂₂ , Steven L Morey ₂₃ , Steven A Murawski ₄ , Claire B Paris ₆ , Natalie Perlin ₂₄ , Erin L Pulster ₄ , Antonietta Quigg ₂₅ , Denise J Reed ₂₆ , James J Ruzicka ₂₇ , Paul A Sandifer ₂₈ , John G Shepherd ₂₉ , Burton H Singer ₃₀ , Michael R Stukel ₃₁ , Tracey T Sutton ₃₂ , Robert H Weisberg ₄ , Denis Wiesenburg ₃₃ , Charles A Wilson ₃₄ , Monica Wilson ₃₅ , Kateryna M Wowk ₁₈ , Callan Yanoff ₁₄ , David Yoskowitz ₁₈

Affiliation

Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA.
Ventana Systems, Inc., Harvard, MA 01451, USA.
Department of Climate, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway.
College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA.
School of Global Public Health, New York University, New York, NY 10003, USA.
Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, OH 45268, USA.
Food and Resource Economics Department, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement, French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Grenoble, France 38000, and Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA.
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Wood Hole, MA 02543, USA.
Consortium for Ocean Leadership, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative, Washington, DC 20005, USA.
Built Environment Department, College of Science and Technology, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, Greensboro, NC 27411, USA.
Florida Institute of Oceanography, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA.
RPS Ocean Science, South Kingstown, RI 02879, USA.
Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412, USA.
Dept. of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Ecosystem Science, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0E6, Canada.
Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Galveston, TX 77551, USA.
Louisiana Sea Grant College Program, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.
School of the Environment, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University, Tallahassee, FL 32307, USA.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
Department of Marine Biology, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77553, USA.
Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of New Orleans, 2000 Lakeshore Drive, New Orleans, LA 70148, USA.
Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Oregon State University, Newport, OR 97365, USA.
Center for Coastal Environmental and Human Health, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC 29424, USA.
School of Ocean & Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA.
Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA.
Guy Harvey Oceanographic Center, Halmos College of Arts and Sciences, Nova Southeastern University, Dania Beach, FL 33004, USA.
School of Ocean Science and Engineering, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS 39406, USA.
Gulf of Mexico Alliance, Ocean Springs, MS 39564, USA.
Florida Sea Grant, University of Florida, St. Petersburg, FL 33701, USA.

Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach. This synthesis resulted in a causal loop diagram from which the interconnectivity of the system could be visualized. Results of this analysis indicate that the system naturally separates into two tiers, ocean environment and biological ecosystems versus socioeconomics and human health. As a result, ocean environment and ecosystem models could be used to provide input to explore human health and socioeconomic variables in hypothetical scenarios. At decadal-plus time scales, the analysis emphasized that human domains influence the natural domains through changes in oil-spill related laws and regulations. Although data gaps were identified in all four model domains, the socioeconomics and human health domains are the least established. Considerable future work is needed to address research gaps and to create fully coupled quantitative integrative assessment models that can be used in strategic decision-making that will optimize recoveries from future large oil spills.

中文翻译：

建立漏油长期影响的综合模型

尽管在推进对石油泄漏的科学认识方面取得了巨大进展，但仍缺乏对生态系统、社会经济和人类健康的长期影响进行综合评估建模的工具。本研究的目的是开发一个概念框架，可用于回答利益相关者有关漏油影响的问题，并确定知识差距和未来整合优先事项。该框架最初分为四个知识领域（海洋环境、生物生态系统、社会经济学和人类健康），通过公众参与收集利益相关者的问题、吸收专家对现有模型的意见以及通过系统动力学方法整合信息来探索这些知识领域之间的相互作用。这种综合产生了一个因果循环图，从中可以可视化系统的互连性。该分析的结果表明，该系统自然地分为两层：海洋环境和生物生态系统与社会经济和人类健康。因此，海洋环境和生态系统模型可用于提供输入，以探索假设情景中的人类健康和社会经济变量。在十年以上的时间尺度上，分析强调人类领域通过石油泄漏相关法律法规的变化影响自然领域。尽管在所有四个模型领域都发现了数据差距，但社会经济学和人类健康领域的建立最少。未来需要开展大量工作来解决研究空白，并创建完全耦合的定量综合评估模型，该模型可用于战略决策，从而优化未来大型石油泄漏的回收率。

更新日期：2021-06-22

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