Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings

Millions of North Americans stopped riding public transit in response to COVID-19. We treat this crisis as a natural experiment to illustrate the importance of public transit in riders’ abilities to access essential destinations. We measured the impacts of riders forgoing transit through a survey of transportation barriers completed by more than 4,000 transit riders in Toronto and Vancouver (Canada). We used Heckman selection models to predict six dimensions of transport disadvantage and transport-related social exclusions captured in our survey. We then complemented model results with an analysis of survey comments describing barriers that individuals faced. Lack of access to alternative modes is the strongest predictor of a former rider experiencing transport disadvantage, particularly neighborhood walkability and vehicle ownership. Groups at risk of transport disadvantage before COVID-19, particularly women and people in poorer health, were also more likely to report difficulties while avoiding public transit. Barriers described by respondents included former supports no longer offering rides, gendered household car use dynamics, and lack of culturally specific or specialized amenities within walking distance.

Takeaway for practice

Policymakers should plan for a level of redundancy in transportation systems that enables residents to access essential destinations when unexpected service losses occur. Designing communities that enable residents to walk to those essential destinations will help reduce the burdens faced by transit riders during crises that render transit unfeasible. At the same time, planners championing active travel as an alternative to transit during such crises also need to devise solutions for former transit riders for whom active travel is ill suited, for example, due to physical challenges with carrying groceries or needing to chaperone children.

中文翻译：

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在 COVID-19 期间避开公共交通的乘客

摘要

问题、研究策略和发现

为应对 COVID-19，数百万北美人停止乘坐公共交通工具。我们将这场危机视为一次自然实验，以说明公共交通对于乘客到达重要目的地的能力的重要性。我们通过对多伦多和温哥华（加拿大）的 4,000 多名公交乘客完成的交通障碍调查来衡量乘客放弃公交的影响。我们使用 Heckman 选择模型来预测我们调查中捕获的交通劣势和与交通相关的社会排斥的六个维度。然后，我们通过对描述个人面临的障碍的调查评论的分析来补充模型结果。缺乏替代模式是前骑手遇到交通劣势的最有力预测因素，尤其是邻里步行性和车辆所有权。在 COVID-19 之前处于交通不利风险的群体，尤其是妇女和健康状况较差的人，也更有可能在避免乘坐公共交通工具的同时报告困难。受访者描述的障碍包括不再提供乘车服务的前支持、性别化的家用汽车使用动态以及步行距离内缺乏特定文化或专业设施。

外卖练习

政策制定者应规划交通系统的冗余程度，使居民能够在发生意外服务损失时到达重要目的地。设计社区使居民能够步行到那些重要的目的地，将有助于减轻过境乘客在使交通不可行的危机期间面临的负担。与此同时，在此类危机期间倡导积极出行作为公交替代方案的规划者还需要为不适合主动出行的前公交乘客设计解决方案，例如，由于携带杂货或需要陪伴儿童的身体挑战。