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A Preliminary Analysis of Sexual Recidivism and Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Men Discharged From State Hospitals Pursuant to California’s Sexually Violent Predator Act
Sexual Abuse ( IF 2.883 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-21 , DOI: 10.1177/10790632211019726
Allen Azizian 1, 2 , Mark E Olver 3 , James Rokop 2 , Deirdre M D'Orazio 2
Affiliation  

We examined the recidivism rates and the predictive validity of the Static-99R in 335 men who were detained or civilly committed and released from California State Hospitals pursuant to the Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Act, and followed up for approximately 21 years from date of hospital admission. In all, 8.7% were arrested or convicted for a new sexual offense during the total follow-up (N = 335) and 7.8% over a fixed 5-year follow-up (n = 205). The Static-99R demonstrated small in magnitude discrimination for sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the curve [AUC]/C = .56 to .63). Calibration analyses, conducted through expected/observed (E/O) index, demonstrated that the Static-99R overpredicted sexual recidivism, irrespective of whether the Routine or High Risk/Need norms were used. Observed recidivism rates were lower than predicted by Static-99R scores and may be the result of the sample’s older age at release, lengthy hospitalization, or other factors.



中文翻译:

根据加州性暴力掠夺者法案,对从州立医院出院的男性进行性累犯和 Static-99R 预测有效性的初步分析

我们检查了 335 名根据性暴力掠夺者 (SVP) 法案从加利福尼亚州立医院被拘留或民事犯罪并获释的男性的累犯率和 Static-99R 的预测有效性,并自入院。总共有 8.7% 的人在整个随访期间(N = 335)因新的性犯罪被捕或被定罪,在固定的 5 年随访期间(n= 205)。Static-99R 对性犯罪、暴力犯罪和一般累犯(曲线下面积 [AUC]/C = 0.56 至 0.63)的判别幅度很小。通过预期/观察 (E/O) 指数进行的校准分析表明,无论使用常规还是高风险/需要规范,Static-99R 都高估了性累犯。观察到的累犯率低于 Static-99R 分数的预测,这可能是样本释放时年龄较大、住院时间长或其他因素的结果。

更新日期:2021-06-22
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