Several changes in terrorist tactics have occurred recently. First, terrorist attack targets have changed from hard to soft targets. Second, terrorists are actively using low-tech terrorism methods that they can choose easily. Finally, terrorist attacks are evolving into complex and simultaneous terrorist events. This study endeavored to determine whether these changes affected the number of casualties from terrorist events that occurred in developed countries. Based on the rational choice theory and situational crime prevention, the variables were constructed based on two dimensions: “target factors in terrorism” and “terrorist attack factors in terrorism.” To achieve the purpose of this study, a negative binomial regression analysis was performed based on data from the Global Terrorism Database. Consequently, variables such as “exposure,” “protection capability,” “attack patterns (vehicle),” and “suicide terrorism” were verified for their statistically significant influence on “mass casualty terrorism (MCT).” This study suggests that it is necessary to design a preventive environment and arrange for personnel at each site that is vulnerable to terrorism to prevent MCT events from occurring inside facilities.

最近恐怖主义战术发生了一些变化。一是恐怖袭击目标由硬目标转变为软目标。其次，恐怖分子正在积极使用他们可以轻松选择的低技术恐怖主义方法。最后，恐怖袭击正在演变为复杂而同时发生的恐怖事件。本研究试图确定这些变化是否会影响发达国家发生的恐怖事件造成的伤亡人数。基于理性选择理论和情境犯罪预防，从“恐怖主义中的目标因素”和“恐怖主义中的恐怖袭击因素”两个维度构建变量。为了达到本研究的目的，基于全球恐怖主义数据库的数据进行了负二项式回归分析。因此，诸如“曝光、” “保护能力”、“攻击模式（车辆）”和“自杀式恐怖主义”在统计上对“大规模伤亡恐怖主义（MCT）”有显着影响。该研究表明，有必要设计一个预防环境并在每个易受恐怖主义攻击的地点安排人员，以防止 MCT 事件在设施内发生。