The deterioration and cracking of reinforced concrete (RC) bridges due to the chloride-induced corrosion of steel reinforcement is an inherently time-dependent stochastic phenomenon. In the current practice of bridge management systems, however, the determination of the condition states of deteriorated bridges is highly dependent on the opinion of experienced inspectors. Taking such complexity into account, the current paper presents a new stochastic predictive methodology using a non-homogeneous Markov process, which directly relates the visual inspection data (corrosion rate and crack widths) to the structural vulnerability of deteriorated concrete bridges. This methodology predicts the future condition of corrosion-induced damage (concrete cracking) by linking structural vulnerability analysis and a discrete-time Markov chain model. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through a case-study corrosion-damaged RC bridge pier.

This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘A cracking approach to inventing new tough materials: fracture stranger than friction’.

由于氯化物引起的钢筋腐蚀导致钢筋混凝土（RC）桥梁的劣化和开裂是一种固有的时间依赖性随机现象。然而，在桥梁管理系统的当前实践中，对受损桥梁状况状态的确定高度依赖于经验丰富的检查员的意见。考虑到这种复杂性，本文提出了一种使用非均匀马尔可夫过程的新随机预测方法，该方法直接将目视检查数据（腐蚀率和裂缝宽度）与劣化混凝土桥梁的结构脆弱性联系起来。该方法通过连接结构脆弱性分析和离散时间马尔可夫链模型来预测腐蚀引起的损坏（混凝土开裂）的未来状况。

本文是讨论会议问题“发明新的坚韧材料的开裂方法：断裂比摩擦更奇怪”的一部分。