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Kerala floods in consecutive years - Its association with mesoscale cloudburst and structural changes in monsoon clouds over the west coast of India
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 8 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-21 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100339
P. Vijaykumar , S. Abhilash , A.V. Sreenath , U.N. Athira , K. Mohanakumar , B.E. Mapes , B. Chakrapani , A.K. Sahai , T.N. Niyas , O.P. Sreejith

Kerala, located at the southwest tip of India, witnessed disastrous floods during the monsoon seasons of two consecutive years, 2018 and 2019. This paper provides a detailed analysis of these two flood events using data from multiple sources. The unusually unstable and convective nature of the 2019 event, as detectable in its higher cloud tops and evidently fuelled by anomalously warm local sea temperatures, raises concerns regarding the changing patterns of rainfall over the southern parts of the west coast of India. Specifically, our analysis reveals that the flood of 2019 in Kerala satisfies the criteria for a mesoscale cloudburst (MsCB) event, more common in the north but a very rare and never before reported phenomenon in the Kerala region. Rainfall exceeding 50 mm in 2 h has been reported from many places between 8.00 and 22.00 UTC on the August 8, 2019. Satellite-derived rainfall and cloud microphysical parameters further reveal the uniqueness of the 2019 MsCB event. If 2019 is a harbinger of how global warming may continue to affect this region, transformations of the cloud structure and the recurrence and character of intense rainfall events could pose a major threat to the highly vulnerable Western Ghats ecosystems.



中文翻译:

喀拉拉邦连续多年洪水 - 与印度西海岸季风云的中尺度暴风雨和结构变化有关

位于印度西南端的喀拉拉邦在 2018 年和 2019 年连续两年的季风季节发生了灾难性的洪水。本文利用多源数据对这两次洪水事件进行了详细分析。2019 年事件的异常不稳定和对流性质(可在其较高的云顶中检测到,并且明显受到异常温暖的当地海水温度的推动)引发了人们对印度西海岸南部地区降雨模式变化的担忧。具体而言,我们的分析表明,喀拉拉邦 2019 年的洪水符合中尺度暴风雨 (MsCB) 事件的标准,这种事件在北部更为常见,但在喀拉拉邦地区却是一种非常罕见且从未报道过的现象。据报道,8 点到 22 点之间的许多地方在 2 小时内降雨量超过 50 毫米。2019 年 8 月 8 日 00 UTC。卫星衍生的降雨和云微物理参数进一步揭示了 2019 MsCB 事件的独特性。如果 2019 年预示着全球变暖可能会继续影响该地区,那么云结构的变化以及强降雨事件的复发和特征可能会对高度脆弱的西高止山脉生态系统构成重大威胁。

更新日期:2021-06-24
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