ABSTRACT

The water balance resilience to extreme climate change scenarios in Hydrologic Similarity Areas (HSA) is evaluated in the Belém catchment, Brazil. We used HadGEM2-ES statistically downscaled with the CMhyd tool under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 to simulate climate scenarios. The AquaCycle model was used to simulate effects on the water balance. Climate modeling results show an increase in annual precipitation and average temperature, decreased rainy days, and increasing extremes. The water balance modeling demonstrated that the HSAs with higher percentages of impermeable surfaces present greater surface runoff and lower levels of infiltration and actual evapotranspiration increment in both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The differences among the HSA responses in the water balance are even more evident when analyzing the extreme events data series. Thereby, the results demonstrate that impermeable areas are less resilient to extreme events provided by climate change scenarios.

摘要

在巴西贝伦集水区评估了水文相似区 (HSA) 对极端气候变化情景的水平衡恢复能力。我们在代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 2.6 和 8.5 下使用 CMhyd 工具统计缩小的 HadGEM2-ES 来模拟气候情景。AquaCycle 模型用于模拟对水平衡的影响。气候模拟结果显示年降水量和平均温度增加，雨天减少，极端天气增加。水平衡模型表明，在 RCP2.6 和 RCP8.5 中，具有较高非渗透表面百分比的 HSA 呈现出更大的地表径流和较低水平的渗透和实际蒸散增量。在分析极端事件数据系列时，水平衡中 HSA 响应之间的差异更加明显。因此，结果表明不可渗透区域对气候变化情景提供的极端事件的适应能力较差。