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Bayesian Skyline Plots disagree with range size changes based on Species Distribution Models for Holarctic birds
Molecular Ecology ( IF 4.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-21 , DOI: 10.1111/mec.16032
Eleanor F Miller 1 , Rhys E Green 1 , Andrew Balmford 1 , Pierpaolo Maisano Delser 1 , Robert Beyer 1 , Marius Somveille 2 , Michela Leonardi 1 , William Amos 1 , Andrea Manica 1
Affiliation  

During the Quaternary, large climate oscillations impacted the distribution and demography of species globally. Two approaches have played a major role in reconstructing changes through time: Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSPs), which reconstruct population fluctuations based on genetic data, and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), which allow us to back-cast the range occupied by a species based on its climatic preferences. In this paper, we contrast these two approaches by applying them to a large data set of 102 Holarctic bird species, for which both mitochondrial DNA sequences and distribution maps are available, to reconstruct their dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Most species experienced an increase in effective population size (Ne, as estimated by BSPs) as well as an increase in geographical range (as reconstructed by SDMs) since the LGM; however, we found no correlation between the magnitude of changes in Ne and range size. The only clear signal we could detect was a later and greater increase in Ne for wetland birds compared to species that live in other habitats, a probable consequence of a delayed and more extensive increase in the extent of this habitat type after the LGM. The lack of correlation between SDM and BSP reconstructions could not be reconciled even when range shifts were considered. We suggest that this pattern might be linked to changes in population densities, which can be independent of range changes, and caution that interpreting either SDMs or BSPs independently is problematic and potentially misleading.

中文翻译:

贝叶斯天际线图不同意基于全北极鸟类物种分布模型的范围大小变化

在第四纪期间,大的气候振荡影响了全球物种的分布和人口统计。两种方法在重建随时间的变化方面发挥了重要作用:贝叶斯天际线图 (BSP),它根据遗传数据重建种群波动,以及物种分布模型 (SDM),它使我们能够反向预测物种占据的范围根据其气候偏好。在本文中,我们通过将这两种方法应用于 102 种 Holarctic 鸟类的大型数据集来对比这两种方法,其中线粒体 DNA 序列和分布图都可用,以重建它们自末次盛冰期 (LGM) 以来的动态。大多数物种的有效种群规模都有所增加(N e,根据 BSP 的估计)以及自 LGM 以来地理范围的增加(由 SDM 重建);然而,我们发现N e的变化幅度与范围大小之间没有相关性。我们能检测到的唯一明确信号是N e的较晚和更大的增加对于湿地鸟类而言,与生活在其他栖息地的物种相比,这可能是 LGM 之后这种栖息地类型范围延迟和更广泛增加的结果。即使考虑到范围偏移,SDM 和 BSP 重建之间缺乏相关性也无法协调。我们认为这种模式可能与人口密度的变化有关,而人口密度的变化可能与范围变化无关,并警告说独立解释 SDM 或 BSP 是有问题的,并且可能会产生误导。
更新日期:2021-08-10
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