CONTEXT

Livestock are the primary source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture in most African countries, but there is a paucity of baseline data and monitoring of GHG emissions from livestock in Africa, particularly for extreme or shock events. The COVID-19 pandemic represents a novels shock to livestock systems and may result in indirect effects on livestock emissions and other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Due to the pandemic in 2020, extensive pastoralist livestock systems in Northern Kenya were subjected to restrictions on movement, increased costs of transportation, and closure of livestock markets.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on GHG emissions from livestock systems in Northern Kenya using proxy data and a three-part framework based on changes in 1) herd size, 2) feed availability, and 3) livestock movement.

METHODS

We evaluated changes in GHG emissions from livestock systems in Northern Kenya due to the COVID-19 pandemic based on proxy data from crowd-sourced market data, household panel surveys, and remote sensing data on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Proxy data were obtained before the pandemic in 2019 and after the pandemic in 2020 to compare between years and evaluate the indirect effects of the pandemic and associated restrictions on livestock GHG emissions using the three-part framework.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Overall GHG emissions from livestock in Northern Kenya have decreased due to the pandemic and this was largely driven by reductions in herd size. This reduction in GHG emissions occurred despite an increase in GHG emissions from livestock associated with higher feed availability. Decreased livestock movement due to the pandemic contributed to reductions in GHG emissions from livestock, but such reductions were likely to be small due to limited need for livestock to travel longer distances under the prevailing conditions of high feed availability.

SIGNIFICANCE

This research shows that assessments of changes in GHG emissions from livestock systems due to shock events can be conducted successfully based on proxy data and the three-part framework developed here. We found that shock events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, may lead to unexpected results with respect to the direction and magnitude of changes in livestock emissions depending on contextual factors and environmental conditions. Thus, we call for more spatially explicit and continued data collection to assess and monitor the consequences of shock events on GHG emissions from livestock and related SDGs in Africa.

中文翻译：

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评估冲击事件对撒哈拉以南非洲牲畜和环境影响的框架：肯尼亚北部的 COVID-19 大流行

语境

在大多数非洲国家，牲畜是农业温室气体 (GHG) 排放的主要来源，但缺乏基线数据和对非洲牲畜温室气体排放的监测，特别是极端或冲击事件。COVID-19 大流行对牲畜系统造成了新的冲击，并可能对牲畜排放和其他可持续发展目标 (SDG) 产生间接影响。由于 2020 年的大流行，肯尼亚北部广泛的牧民牲畜系统受到行动限制、运输成本增加和牲畜市场关闭的影响。

客观的

本研究的目的是使用代理数据和基于以下变化的三部分框架评估 COVID-19 大流行对肯尼亚北部畜牧系统温室气体排放的间接影响：1）畜群规模，2）饲料供应，以及3）牲畜运动。

方法

我们根据来自众包市场数据、家庭小组调查和标准化差异植被指数 (NDVI) 遥感数据的代理数据，评估了由于 COVID-19 大流行而导致的肯尼亚北部畜牧系统温室气体排放量的变化。代理数据是在 2019 年大流行之前和 2020 年大流行之后获得的，以比较年份并使用三部分框架评估大流行和相关限制对牲畜温室气体排放的间接影响。

结果和结论

由于大流行，肯尼亚北部牲畜的总体温室气体排放量有所减少，这主要是由于畜群规模的减少。尽管与更高的饲料供应相关的牲畜温室气体排放量有所增加，但温室气体排放量的减少还是发生了。由于大流行而减少的牲畜流动有助于减少牲畜的温室气体排放，但由于在高饲料供应的普遍条件下牲畜长距离移动的需要有限，因此这种减少可能很小。

意义

这项研究表明，可以根据代理数据和此处开发的三部分框架成功评估因冲击事件导致的畜牧系统温室气体排放变化。我们发现，根据背景因素和环境条件，诸如 COVID-19 大流行之类的冲击事件可能会导致牲畜排放变化的方向和幅度方面的意外结果。因此，我们呼吁在空间上进行更明确和持续的数据收集，以评估和监测冲击事件对非洲牲畜和相关可持续发展目标温室气体排放的影响。