The Mediterranean basin has been identified as a prominent hotspot of climate change, with expected negative impacts on crop productivity, among others. Given the primary role that agriculture has to sustain cultural values, economic opportunities, and food security, it is crucial to identify specific risks in agriculture due to climate change, which can address more effective adaptation strategies and policies to cope with climate change. This study aims to evaluate the high-resolution impacts of climate change on the length of the growing cycle and yield of durum wheat, common wheat, and maize in Italy by using the CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize crop models implemented in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software. A digital platform (GIS-DSSAT) was developed to couple crop simulation models with dynamically downscaled climate projections at high resolution for Italy, which can better represent the Italian landscape complexity and the spatial distribution of different pedological and crop management features, providing more detailed information on the expected impacts on crops respect to previous studies at a coarser resolution. The projections have been extended for two climate change scenarios and accounting for uncertainty, either considering or not the potential direct effects of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations ([CO₂]). Results show that climate change may affect Italian cereal production in the medium to long term periods. Maize is the main affected crop, with yield reductions homogeneously distributed from North to South Italy. Wheat yield is expected to decrease mainly in southern Italy, while northern Italy may benefit from higher precipitation regimes. Higher levels of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations may partially offset the negative impact posed by climate change and increase the benefits in the northern regions, especially for common and durum wheat.

地中海盆地已被确定为气候变化的一个突出热点，预计会对作物生产力等产生负面影响。鉴于农业在维持文化价值、经济机会和粮食安全方面的主要作用，识别气候变化导致的农业特定风险至关重要，这可以制定更有效的适应战略和政策来应对气候变化。本研究旨在通过使用决策支持中实施的 CERES-Wheat 和 CERES-Maize 作物模型，评估气候变化对意大利硬粒小麦、普通小麦和玉米的生长周期长度和产量的高分辨率影响。农业技术转让系统 (DSSAT) 软件。开发了一个数字平台（GIS-DSSAT），将作物模拟模型与动态缩小的意大利高分辨率气候预测相结合，可以更好地代表意大利的景观复杂性和不同土壤和作物管理特征的空间分布，提供更详细的信息在较粗略的分辨率下，关于先前研究对作物的预期影响。预测已针对两种气候变化情景进行了扩展，并考虑了不确定性，无论是否考虑大气 CO2 增加的潜在直接影响 以较粗略的分辨率提供有关先前研究对作物的预期影响的更详细信息。预测已针对两种气候变化情景进行了扩展，并考虑了不确定性，无论是否考虑大气 CO2 增加的潜在直接影响 以较粗略的分辨率提供有关先前研究对作物的预期影响的更详细信息。预测已针对两种气候变化情景进行了扩展，并考虑了不确定性，无论是否考虑大气 CO2 增加的潜在直接影响_{2 个}浓度 ([CO ₂ ])。结果表明，气候变化可能会在中长期影响意大利谷物生产。玉米是主要受影响的作物，从意大利北部到南部均匀分布的减产。预计小麦单产将主要在意大利南部下降，而意大利北部可能受益于较高的降水情况。较高水平的大气 CO ₂浓度可能会部分抵消气候变化带来的负面影响，并增加北部地区的收益，尤其是普通小麦和硬粒小麦。