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Seesaw scenarios of lockdown for COVID-19 pandemic: Simulation and failure analysis
Sustainable Cities and Society ( IF 11.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.103108
Behrouz Afshar-Nadjafi 1 , Seyed Taghi Akhavan Niaki 2
Affiliation  

The ongoing COVOD-19(SARS-CoV-2) outbreak has had a devastating impact on the economy, education and businesses. In this paper, the behavior of an epidemic is simulated on different contact networks. Herein, it is assumed that the infection may be transmitted at each contact from an infected person to a susceptible individual with a given probability. The probability of transmitting the disease may change due to the individuals' social behavior or interventions prescribed by the authorities. We utilized simulation on the contact networks to demonstrate how seesaw scenarios of lockdown can curb infection and level the pandemic without maximum pressure on the poor societies. Soft scenarios consist of closing businesses 2, 3, and 4 days in between with four levels of lockdown respected by 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the population. The findings reveal that the outbreak can be flattened under softer alternatives instead of a doomsday scenario of complete lockdown. More specifically, it is turned out that proposed soft lockdown strategies can flatten up to 120% of the pandemic course. It is also revealed that transmission probability has a crucial role in the course of the infection, growth rate of the infection, and the number of infected individuals.



中文翻译:

COVID-19 大流行的锁定跷跷板场景:模拟和故障分析

持续的 COVOD-19(SARS-CoV-2) 疫情对经济、教育和企业造成了毁灭性影响。在本文中,流行病的行为是在不同的联系网络上模拟的。在此,假设感染可能以给定的概率在每次接触中从感染者传播到易感个体。由于个人的社会行为或当局规定的干预措施,传播疾病的可能性可能会发生变化。我们利用联系网络上的模拟来展示锁定的跷跷板情景如何在不对贫困社会施加最大压力的情况下遏制感染并平息大流行。软情景包括在其间的 2、3 和 4 天关闭业务,以及 25%、50%、75% 和 100% 的人口遵守的四个级别的锁定。调查结果表明,在更温和的替代方案下,可以平息疫情,而不是完全封锁的世界末日情景。更具体地说,事实证明,拟议的软锁定策略可以平息高达 120% 的大流行进程。还揭示了传播概率对感染过程、感染增长率和感染人数具有至关重要的作用。

更新日期:2021-06-25
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