When an emergency occurs, there’s a massive challenge for experts to select the optimal emergency plan for disaster relief, because the decision-making process is full of uncertainty and fuzziness. This paper develops an emergency group decision-making method to help decision-makers choose the optimal emergency plan under probabilistic hesitant fuzzy environment. In the beginning, we offer a novel concept called probabilistic hesitant fuzzy cumulative residual entropy (PHFCRE) to measure the degree of uncertainty for probabilistic hesitant fuzzy elements (PHFEs). Then, incomplete probabilities for PHFEs are obtained by integrating the PHFCRE with the principle of maximum entropy. In addition, an enhanced weight determination method based on PHFCRE is proposed to obtain the attribute weights. Besides, to rank the alternatives, an enhanced satisfaction degree function based on PHFCRE is proposed. Finally, a real case concerning the snowstorm disaster is provided, and some comparison analyses are conducted to study the reasonability and practicality of the proposed method.

当突发事件发生时，专家们在选择最佳的救灾应急方案时面临着巨大的挑战，因为决策过程充满了不确定性和模糊性。本文提出了一种应急群决策方法，帮助决策者在概率犹豫模糊环境下选择最优应急方案。一开始，我们提供了一个称为概率犹豫模糊累积残差 (PHFCRE) 的新概念来衡量概率犹豫模糊元素 (PHFE) 的不确定性程度。然后，通过将 PHFCRE 与最大熵原理相结合，获得 PHFE 的不完全概率。此外，提出了一种基于PHFCRE的增强权重确定方法来获取属性权重。此外，为了对备选方案进行排名，提出了一种基于PHFCRE的增强满意度函数。最后给出了一个关于暴风雪灾害的真实案例，并进行了一些对比分析，研究了该方法的合理性和实用性。