A recent debate over the causal foundations of evolutionary theory pits those who believe that natural selection causally explains long-term, adaptive population change against those who do not. In this paper, I argue that this debate – far from being an invention of several articles in 2002 – dates from our very first engagements with evolution as a quantified, statistical science. Further, when we analyze that history, we see that a pivotal figure in the early use of statistical methodology in evolutionary theory, W.F.R. Weldon (1860–1906), changes his mind about precisely the central claim at issue. I close by drawing some morals which I think the case can offer for the contemporary debate going forward.

最近一场关于进化论因果基础的辩论让那些相信自然选择可以因果地解释长期、适应性人口变化的人与那些不这样做的人争论不休。在这篇论文中，我认为这场辩论——远非 2002 年几篇文章的发明——可以追溯到我们第一次将进化作为量化的统计科学。此外，当我们分析那段历史时，我们看到进化论中早期使用统计方法的关键人物 WFR Weldon（1860-1906）改变了他对所讨论的中心主张的看法。最后我总结了一些我认为这个案例可以为当代辩论提供的道德。