Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy. While there is a growing body of literature on the economic consequences of climate change, research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by estimating the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on the probability of sovereign debt default. Using a sample of 116 countries over the period 1995–2017, we find that climate change vulnerability and resilience have significant effects on the probability of sovereign debt default, especially among low-income countries. That is, countries with greater vulnerability to climate change face a higher likelihood of debt default compared to more climate resilient countries. These findings remain robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, including alternative measures of sovereign debt default, model specifications, and estimation methodologies.

气候变化对全球经济构成了生存威胁。虽然关于气候变化的经济后果的文献越来越多，但关于气候变化与主权违约风险之间联系的研究并不存在。我们旨在通过估计气候变化脆弱性和弹性对主权债务违约概率的影响来填补文献中的这一空白。使用 1995-2017 年期间 116 个国家的样本，我们发现气候变化的脆弱性和弹性对主权债务违约的概率有显着影响，尤其是在低收入国家。也就是说，与气候适应性更强的国家相比，对气候变化更脆弱的国家面临更高的债务违约可能性。这些发现对一系列敏感性检查仍然有效，