Public awareness programs may deeply influence the epidemic pattern of a contagious disease by altering people’s perception of risk and individuals behavior during the course of the epidemic outbreak. Regardless of the veracity, social media advertisements are expected to execute an increasingly prominent role in the field of infectious disease modeling. In this paper, we propose a model which portrays the interplay between dissemination of awareness at local and global levels, and prevalence of disease. Our sensitivity results determine the correlations between some epidemiologically important parameters and disease prevalence. The growth rate of broadcasting information through social media is found to destabilize the system through limit cycle oscillations whereas the baseline number of social media advertisements stabilize the system by terminating persistent oscillations. The system first undergoes supercritical Hopf-bifurcation and then subcritical Hopf-bifurcation on gradual increase in dissemination rate of awareness at local/global level. Moreover, the disease is eradicated if the dissemination rates of awareness and baseline number of social media advertisements are too large. We also study the effect of seasonal variation of the growth rate of social media advertisements. Our nonautonomous system generates globally attractive positive periodic solution if the growth rate of social media advertisements lies between certain ranges. However, the global attractivity is affected on enhancement in growth rate of social media advertisements and three-periodic solution is observed. Our findings show that baseline number of social media advertisements and dissemination of awareness at individual as well as community levels play a tremendous role in eliminating the burden of disease. Furthermore, a comparison of the effects of local and global awareness reveals that the latter is more effective in curtailing the disease. We believe these findings may be beneficial to understand the contagion characteristics of real epidemics and help to adopt suitable precautionary measures in the form of nonpharmaceutical interventions.

中文翻译：

---

传染病的动态：本地与全球意识

公众意识计划可能会通过改变人们在流行病爆发过程中对风险和个人行为的看法，从而深刻影响传染病的流行模式。不管真实性如何，预计社交媒体广告将在传染病建模领域发挥越来越重要的作用。在本文中，我们提出了一个模型，该模型描述了地方和全球层面的意识传播与疾病流行之间的相互作用。我们的敏感性结果确定了一些流行病学上重要的参数与疾病流行之间的相关性。发现通过社交媒体传播信息的增长率通过极限循环振荡使系统不稳定，而社交媒体广告的基线数量通过终止持续振荡来稳定系统。该系统首先经历超临界 Hopf 分岔，然后是亚临界 Hopf 分岔，逐渐提高本地/全球层面的意识传播率。此外，如果意识的传播率和社交媒体广告的基线数量太大，这种疾病就会被根除。我们还研究了季节性变化对社交媒体广告增长率的影响。如果社交媒体广告的增长率在一定范围内，我们的非自治系统会生成具有全球吸引力的正周期解。然而，全球吸引力受到社交媒体广告增长率提高的影响，并观察到三周期解决方案。我们的研究结果表明，社交媒体广告的基线数量以及个人和社区层面的意识传播在消除疾病负担方面发挥着巨大作用。此外，比较本地和全球意识的影响表明，后者在减少疾病方面更有效。我们相信这些发现可能有助于了解真实流行病的传染特征，并有助于采取非药物干预形式的适当预防措施。我们的研究结果表明，社交媒体广告的基线数量以及个人和社区层面的意识传播在消除疾病负担方面发挥着巨大作用。此外，比较本地和全球意识的影响表明，后者在减少疾病方面更有效。我们相信这些发现可能有助于了解真实流行病的传染特征，并有助于采取非药物干预形式的适当预防措施。我们的研究结果表明，社交媒体广告的基线数量以及个人和社区层面的意识传播在消除疾病负担方面发挥着巨大作用。此外，比较本地和全球意识的影响表明，后者在减少疾病方面更有效。我们相信这些发现可能有助于了解真实流行病的传染特征，并有助于采取非药物干预形式的适当预防措施。