Climate policies will need to incentivize transformative societal changes if they are to achieve emission reductions consistent with 1.5°C temperature targets. To contribute to efforts for aligning climate policy with broader societal goals, specifically those related to sustainable development, we identify the effects of climate mitigation policy on aspects of socioeconomic development that are known determinants of conflict and evaluate the plausibility and importance of potential pathways to armed conflict and political violence. Conditional on preexisting societal tensions and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, we isolate effects on economic performance, income and livelihood, food and energy prices, and land tenure as most likely to increase conflict risks. Climate policy designs may be critical to moderate these risks as different designs can promote more favorable societal outcomes such as equity and inclusion. Coupling research with careful monitoring and evaluation of the intermediate societal effects at early stages of policy implementation will be a critical part of learning and moderating potential conflict risks. Importantly, better characterizing the future conflict risks under climate policy allows for a more comprehensive comparison to the conflict risk if mitigation is not implemented and graver climate damages are experienced.

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气候减缓政策和冲突的潜在途径：概述研究议程

如果要实现与 1.5°C 温度目标一致的减排，气候政策将需要激励变革性的社会变革。为了使气候政策与更广泛的社会目标（特别是与可持续发展相关的目标）保持一致，我们确定了气候减缓政策对已知冲突决定因素的社会经济发展方面的影响，并评估了武装武装的潜在途径的合理性和重要性冲突和政治暴力。以先前存在的社会紧张局势和社会经济脆弱性为条件，我们将经济表现、收入和生计、粮食和能源价格以及土地保有权的影响隔离为最有可能增加冲突风险的因素。气候政策设计对于缓和这些风险可能至关重要，因为不同的设计可以促进更有利的社会结果，例如公平和包容。在政策实施的早期阶段将研究与对中间社会影响的仔细监测和评估相结合，将是学习和调节潜在冲突风险的关键部分。重要的是，在气候政策下更好地描述未来冲突风险可以更全面地比较冲突风险，如果没有实施缓解措施并且经历了更严重的气候损害。在政策实施的早期阶段将研究与对中间社会影响的仔细监测和评估相结合，将是学习和调节潜在冲突风险的关键部分。重要的是，在气候政策下更好地描述未来冲突风险可以更全面地比较冲突风险，如果没有实施缓解措施并且经历了更严重的气候损害。在政策实施的早期阶段将研究与对中间社会影响的仔细监测和评估相结合，将是学习和调节潜在冲突风险的关键部分。重要的是，在气候政策下更好地描述未来冲突风险可以更全面地比较冲突风险，如果没有实施缓解措施并且经历了更严重的气候损害。