This paper assesses the impact of decarbonization on the energy system and related employment in South Africa. The cost-minimizing, global energy system model (GENeSYS-MOD) is utilized to project two energy mix scenarios and their associated employment implications at provincial level. While the business as usual (BAU) scenario shows a continuous use of coal capacity in the South African power sector until 2050, the 2 °C scenario exhibits a phase-out of coal by 2040 and a higher diversification of power generation dominated by solar and wind capacity.

The increase in renewable energy sources (RES) generates employment in the energy sector which can partially substitute the decline in coal related jobs in affected regions. However, it is not certain that the employment created by RES will directly benefit those negatively impacted by the transition. The results of a sensitivity of the 2 °C scenario provide a near cost-optimal energy system in line with a just transition towards a 2 °C world that limits the employment impacts for former coal regions. Thus, a technological transition from a coal- to a RES-based system needs comprehensive plans for job-transfers, policy formulations, support mechanisms and structural transformation.

本文评估了脱碳对南非能源系统和相关就业的影响。成本最小化的全球能源系统模型 (GENeSYS-MOD) 用于在省级预测两种能源组合情景及其相关的就业影响。虽然一切照旧 (BAU) 情景显示南非电力部门在 2050 年之前将继续使用煤炭产能，但 2°C 情景表明到 2040 年将逐步淘汰煤炭，并且以太阳能和太阳能为主的发电方式更加多样化。风量。

可再生能源 (RES) 的增加为能源部门创造了就业机会，可以部分替代受影响地区煤炭相关工作岗位的减少。但是，不确定 RES 创造的就业是否会直接使受转型负面影响的人受益。2°C 情景敏感性的结果提供了一个接近成本最优的能源系统，符合向 2°C 世界的公正过渡，限制了前煤炭地区的就业影响。因此，从煤炭系统到可再生能源系统的技术转型需要对工作转移、政策制定、支持机制和结构转型进行全面规划。