We study the welfare implications of optimal loan loss provisions in a New Keynesian model featuring endogenous default risk and inflationary credit spreads. A unique link between provisions, credit spreads and inflation can be employed to enhance macroeconomic stability. Optimal provisions are most effective when dealing with cost-push financial shocks inherent in volatile spreads and the zero bound problem of monetary policy. Relaxing provisioning requirements following a recessionary financial disturbance consistently achieves the first-best outcome while nullifying the value of monetary policy under commitment. In contrast, deflationary demand shocks warrant an optimal rise in provisions, which inflate prices yet mildly contract output.

我们研究了以内生违约风险和通胀信用利差为特征的新凯恩斯主义模型中最优贷款损失准备金的福利影响。可以利用准备金、信用利差和通货膨胀之间的独特联系来增强宏观经济稳定性。在应对利差波动和货币政策的零约束问题所固有的成本推动金融冲击时，最优准备金最为有效。在经济衰退的金融动荡之后放宽准备金要求始终如一地实现最佳结果，同时使承诺的货币政策的价值无效。相比之下，通货紧缩的需求冲击保证了准备金的最佳增加，这会抬高价格但温和地收缩产出。