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Endogenous corporate leverage response to a safer macro environment: The case of foreign exchange reserve accumulation
Journal of International Economics ( IF 3.712 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-18 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103499
Hui Tong , Shang-Jin Wei

A country may adopt policy measures such as raising its foreign exchange reserves to better prepare for sudden reversal of international capital flows or currency attacks, which in principle should reduce financial vulnerability for its firms and the entire economy, but the beneficial effect of such policies may be partially offset by endogenous firms' decisions to take on more risks. We present a robust but previously undocumented relationship between corporate leverage and country-level foreign exchange reserve holdings. For 6610 non-financial firms in 23 emerging markets from 2000 to 2006, we show that more foreign reserve accumulation leads to higher corporate leverage. The effect is significantly greater in sectors that are intrinsically more sensitive to uncertainty. We go from correlation to causality via a two-prong instrumental variable strategy: simultaneously (1) instrumenting FX reserves by global commodity price movement, and (2) examining leverage of firms outside the commodity-sensitive sectors.



中文翻译:

宏观环境下企业杠杆的内生反应:外汇储备积累案例

一国可能会采取提高外汇储备等政策措施,以更好地为国际资本流动突然逆转或货币攻击做好准备,原则上应降低本国企业和整个经济的金融脆弱性,但这些政策的有益效果可能部分被内生公司承担更多风险的决定所抵消。我们提出了企业杠杆与国家级外汇储备持有之间的强大但以前未记录的关系。对于 2000 年至 2006 年 23 个新兴市场的 6610 家非金融企业,我们发现外汇储备积累越多,企业杠杆率越高。在本质上对不确定性更敏感的部门中,这种影响要大得多。

更新日期:2021-07-01
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