This paper investigates whether flexibility-enhancing reforms of national collective bargaining systems have positive outcomes in terms of employment in the short term, especially when implemented during an economic downturn. The analysis consists in applying local projections to a novel panel database of reforms of collective bargaining institutions in EU countries in the period 2000–2018. There is no evidence that making collective bargaining institutions more flexible during a recession has a positive effect on employment in the short term. More specifically, reforms that decentralize bargaining closer to the firm-level have negative short-term effects, particularly on the employment of 15–54 year-olds and low-educated workers. They also tend to favor temporary employment in the medium term. The results do not support the idea that collective bargaining institutions should be reformed during a recession to boost employment.

本文调查了提高国家集体谈判制度灵活性的改革是否在短期内对就业产生了积极影响，尤其是在经济低迷时期实施时。该分析包括将当地预测应用于 2000-2018 年期间欧盟国家集体谈判机构改革的新面板数据库。没有证据表明在经济衰退期间使集体谈判制度更加灵活会对短期就业产生积极影响。更具体地说，将谈判权力下放更接近公司层面的改革具有负面的短期影响，特别是对 15-54 岁和受教育程度低的工人的就业。从中期来看，他们也倾向于支持临时就业。