The paper presents a simulation model for freight. In the paper, this model is applied to understand the impacts of electric vans and cargo bikes for the last-mile delivery of parcels. Cargo bikes are electrically assisted vehicles that distribute parcels from micro depots located close to the final customers by means of short tours. The parcels are sent from the major distribution center to micro depots in vans (called feeders). An agent-based model is used for the purpose of the paper. The model is based on the disaggregation of commodity flows to represent trucks (for all commodities) and individual shipments (for parcel deliveries). The model represents microscopically every freight vehicle in the study area. The simulation of various scenarios with different shares of cargo bikes and electric vans assesses the impacts of electrification and cargo bikes. The use of cargo bikes to deliver parcels allows to reduce the number of motorized vehicles, although the presence of large parcels requires that at least half of deliveries by vans are still required. The shift to cargo bikes represents a slight increase in the total operating time to deliver the parcel demand. With low shares of cargo bikes, the total distance traveled increases, since the reduction of van tours cannot compensate the additional feeder trips from distribution centers to micro depots. The cargo bikes also do not reduce the number of vehicles for the served area, but modify the composition of vehicle types. Low noise, smaller, low emission vehicles increase, while delivery vans are reduced. Both cargo bikes and electric vans are able to reduce CO2 emissions, even after accounting for the emissions related to electricity production.

中文翻译：

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通过模拟城市货运流程评估货运自行车和最后一英里包裹交付电气化的潜力

本文提出了一种货运仿真模型。在本文中，该模型用于了解电动货车和货运自行车对包裹最后一英里交付的影响。货运自行车是电动辅助车辆，通过短途旅行从靠近最终客户的微型仓库分发包裹。包裹从主要配送中心通过货车（称为馈线）发送到微型仓库。基于代理的模型用于本文的目的。该模型基于商品流的分解，以表示卡车（对于所有商品）和单个货物（对于包裹递送）。该模型在微观上代表了研究区域内的每辆货运车辆。货运自行车和电动货车不同份额的各种场景的模拟评估了电气化和货运自行车的影响。使用货运自行车运送包裹可以减少机动车辆的数量，尽管大包裹的存在要求至少仍有一半的货车运送需要使用货车。转向货运自行车意味着交付包裹需求的总运营时间略有增加。由于货运自行车的份额较低，总行驶距离增加，因为面包车旅行的减少无法补偿从配送中心到微型仓库的额外支线旅行。货运自行车也没有减少服务区域的车辆数量，而是修改了车辆类型的组成。低噪音、更小、低排放的车辆增加，而送货车减少。货运自行车和电动货车都能够减少二氧化碳排放，即使考虑到与电力生产相关的排放。