Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-17 , DOI: 10.1007/s11027-021-09958-1 Matthias Honegger , Axel Michaelowa , Jiahua Pan
Solar radiation modification, particularly stratospheric aerosol injection, holds the potential to reduce the impacts of climate change on sustainable development, yet could itself generate negative impacts and is subject to intense scholarly debate based on relatively little evidence. Based on expert elicitation involving over 30 individuals with backgrounds across the domains of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), we identify a broad range of potential implications of solar radiation modification for the SDGs. Depending on design and application scenarios, applications could potentially assist in the pursuit of several of the goals by limiting temperature rise and limiting acceleration in atmospheric water cycles as well as extreme weather events. However, by adding to particulates, introducing an additional layer of complexity and potential for conflict in global governance, as well as otherwise altering planetary environments, they might also detract from the pursuit of SDGs and introduce novel risks. The overall impact of solar radiation modification on sustainable development is currently highly uncertain and dependent on climate change mitigation pathways and governance. We identify key areas for further transdisciplinary research the pursuit of which might reduce some uncertainty and help inform emerging governance processes.
中文翻译:
太阳辐射改造对实现可持续发展目标的潜在影响
太阳辐射修正,特别是平流层气溶胶注入,具有减少气候变化对可持续发展影响的潜力,但本身可能会产生负面影响,并且受到基于相对较少证据的激烈学术辩论的影响。根据涉及联合国可持续发展目标 (SDG) 领域背景的 30 多名个人的专家启发,我们确定了太阳辐射改造对可持续发展目标的广泛潜在影响。根据设计和应用场景,应用可能通过限制温度上升和限制大气水循环加速以及极端天气事件来帮助实现几个目标。但是,通过添加到颗粒中,在全球治理中引入额外的复杂性和潜在冲突层,以及以其他方式改变地球环境,它们也可能会减损对可持续发展目标的追求并引入新的风险。太阳辐射改造对可持续发展的总体影响目前高度不确定,取决于减缓气候变化的途径和治理。我们确定了进一步跨学科研究的关键领域,这些研究可能会减少一些不确定性,并有助于为新兴的治理过程提供信息。太阳辐射改造对可持续发展的总体影响目前高度不确定,取决于减缓气候变化的途径和治理。我们确定了进一步跨学科研究的关键领域,这些研究可能会减少一些不确定性,并有助于为新兴的治理过程提供信息。太阳辐射改造对可持续发展的总体影响目前高度不确定,取决于减缓气候变化的途径和治理。我们确定了进一步跨学科研究的关键领域,这些研究可能会减少一些不确定性,并有助于为新兴的治理过程提供信息。