当前位置: X-MOL 学术Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Water Manag. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Uncertainties in agricultural water supply under climate change: Aidoghmoush basin, Iran
Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management ( IF 1.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-02 , DOI: 10.1680/jwama.19.00032
Saba Jafari 1 , Omid Bozorg-Haddad 2 , Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh 3 , Hugo A. Loáiciga 4
Affiliation  

The planning of future supplies of agricultural water is beset by uncertainties stemming from inaccuracies in general circulation models, assumed greenhouse gases emissions scenarios (GHGESs), imperfect models employed for estimating reservoir inflows and approximate methods for estimating agricultural water demand. The uncertainty of providing agricultural water under climate change was assessed, relying on simulations involving baseline (1971–2000) and future periods (2040–2069 and 2070–2099). Climatic variables were simulated using six atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) driven by GHGESs A2 and B2 in the Aidoghmoush basin, Iran. Projection of reservoir inflow was performed using the IHACRES model and artificial neural network (ANNs). Agricultural water demand was calculated using the FAO–Penman–Monteith and Hargreaves-Samani (HS) methods. Eight modelling scenarios were considered based on combinations of AOGCMs, GHGESs, reservoir inflow and agricultural water demand projections. Reservoir operation rules were calculated with a particle swarm optimisation algorithm. The results show that agricultural water demand will increase in future periods compared with the baseline period. The operation rule derived from the combination of the HS and ANN models (under GHGES A2) showed the best performance in 2040–2069 by achieving the highest reliability (93%) of water supply. The operation rule derived from the combination of HS and ANN models (under GHGES B2) achieved the highest reliability (95%) of water supply in 2070–2099. The results provide adjusted reservoir operation rules under uncertainty caused by climate change and related impacts on water resources management.

中文翻译:

气候变化下农业供水的不确定性:伊朗艾多格穆什盆地

未来农业用水供应的规划受到来自一般循环模型、假定温室气体排放情景 (GHGES)、用于估计水库流入量的不完善模型和估计农业用水需求的近似方法不准确的不确定性的困扰。根据涉及基线(1971-2000 年)和未来时期(2040-2069 年和 2070-2099 年)的模拟,评估了气候变化下提供农业用水的不确定性。在伊朗艾多格穆什盆地,使用由温室气体 A2 和 B2 驱动的六个大气-海洋环流模型 (AOGCM) 模拟了气候变量。使用 IHACRES 模型和人工神经网络 (ANN) 进行储层流入量的预测。农业需水量使用FAO-Penman-Monteith 和Hargreaves-Samani (HS) 方法计算。基于 AOGCM、GHGES、水库流入量和农业用水需求预测的组合,考虑了八种建模方案。水库运行规则采用粒子群优化算法计算。结果表明,与基线期相比,未来各期农业需水量将增加。由 HS 和 ANN 模型(在 GHGES A2 下)组合得出的运行规则通过实现最高的供水可靠性(93%)显示出 2040-2069 年的最佳性能。HS 和 ANN 模型(GHGES B2 下)结合得出的运行规则在 2070-2099 年实现了最高的供水可靠性(95%)。
更新日期:2021-03-02
down
wechat
bug