Singapore’s 2020 general election was held amidst the most serious public health and economic crises in the country’s history Despite expectations that these parallel crises would precipitate a flight to safety and result in a strong performance by the dominant People’s Action Party (PAP), the ruling party received its third-lowest popular vote share (61 2 percent) and lowest-ever seat share (89 2 percent) since independence This article engages explanations for the unexpected results and argues that the vote swing against the PAP was enabled by a hitherto largely overlooked factor: the 2020 election included two opposition parties that could credibly compete with the PAP on the valence considerations that drive voting behaviour in Singapore, giving voters a perceived safe alternative to the PAP at the constituency level Quantitative tests support the notion that party credibility—rather than demographic factors, incumbency advantages, Group Representation Constituencies, or assessments of the PAP’s fourthgeneration leaders—best explains variation in the vote swing against the PAP Ultimately, the results suggest that the PAP’s monopoly on party credibility is no longer assured, thus portending greater opposition competitiveness and pressure against the PAP in future elections Nonetheless, the PAP’s dominance remains intact and there is little evidence of a general appetite among the electorate for a non-PAP government, suggesting the likelihood of smaller course corrections rather than major steps towards democratization in the coming years © Pacific Affairs

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新加坡的大流行选举：GE2020 中的反对党和价政治

新加坡 2020 年大选是在该国历史上最严重的公共卫生和经济危机中举行的，尽管人们预计这些平行危机将促使人们逃往安全地区，并导致执政党人民行动党 (PAP) 表现强劲获得了自独立以来第三低的民众投票份额 (61 2%) 和有史以来最低的席位份额 (89 2%) 本文对意外结果进行了解释，并认为反对行动党的投票是由迄今为止在很大程度上被忽视的因素：2020 年的选举包括两个反对党，它们可以在推动新加坡投票行为的效价考虑方面与人民行动党进行可信的竞争，在选区层面给选民一个被认为安全的人民行动党替代方案 定量测试支持这样一种观点，即政党可信度——而不是人口因素、在位优势、群体代表选区或对人民行动党第四代领导人的评估——最好地解释了反对票的变化行动党 最终，结果表明行动党对政党信誉的垄断不再得到保证，因此预示着在未来的选举中反对党的竞争力和对行动党的压力更大。 尽管如此，行动党的主导地位仍然完好无损，几乎没有证据表明行动党的普遍胃口非人民行动党政府的选民，这表明未来几年可能进行较小的路线修正，而不是迈向民主化的重大步骤 © Pacific Affairs暗示未来几年可能会进行较小的路线修正，而不是朝着民主化迈出重大步骤 © Pacific Affairs