Reducing fuel use for the heating of houses is key to meeting greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. This study constructs Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC) of different technologies for space and water heating of houses in the county of Gwynedd in Wales, UK, and uses information provided by energy certificates to correctly assess the energy requirements of a house. This approach allows us to accurately predict energy consumption and identify potential ways to reduce demand. We then explore the costs and savings of a switch from systems using conventional heating fuel (e.g., gas, electricity, oil, LPG, and coal) to low-carbon technology such as PV, biomass boilers and heat pumps. Solar PV was the low-carbon heating technology found to be most cost-effective per tonne of emissions abated (£/t CO₂). A reduction in capital costs of low-carbon technologies could potentially make technologies such as heat pumps be cost-effective. Without any policy intervention, low investment and fuel cost of gas would make replacement with any low-carbon technology uneconomical. Emission savings in Gwynedd over 30-year period could be between 3.494 and 5.289 Mt CO₂ if appropriate measures which cater towards reducing capital costs and/or incentivising the uptake of technology are adopted.

减少房屋供暖燃料的使用是实现温室气体减排目标的关键。本研究构建了英国威尔士 Gwynedd 县房屋空间和水加热的不同技术的边际减排成本曲线 (MACC)，并使用能源证书提供的信息来正确评估房屋的能源需求。这种方法使我们能够准确预测能源消耗并确定减少需求的潜在方法。然后，我们探讨了从使用传统加热燃料（例如，天然气、电力、石油、液化石油气和煤炭）的系统转向低碳技术（如光伏、生物质锅炉和热泵）的成本和节省。太阳能光伏是一种低碳加热技术，每减少一吨排放量（英镑/吨 CO ₂）。低碳技术资本成本的降低可能使热泵等技术具有成本效益。如果没有任何政策干预，天然气的低投资和燃料成本将使任何低碳技术替代都不经济。如果采取适当的措施来降低资本成本和/或鼓励技术采用，格温内德在 30 年期间的排放量节省可能在 3.494 至 5.289 Mt CO ₂之间。