To study Arctic valley glacier responses to global climate change, the Elmer/Ice ice-flow model was used to investigate long-term changes in Austre Lovenbreen, a typical polythermal glacier in Svalbard. Evolution and features, including volume, area, ice thickness, runoff and time and mode of glacier disappearance, were projected. Firstly, steady-state simulations were performed to determine the best parameters for the ice-flow model, which were then used to simulate glacial dynamics. Based on the 21st-century Arctic warming trend in the fifth assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the evolution of the glacier was simulated under three hypothetical climatic scenarios: pessimistic, high-probability and optimistic. The results predicted that the glacier will retreat until disappearance under all three scenarios, and its disappearance time will likely be approximately 111 years (by 2120). Under all scenarios, glacier volume and area reductions will be slow at first, then fast and finally slow again at the end. In particular, glacial runoff will increase markedly until 2070 in the high-probability scenario, and the peak runoff will be double the current value.

中文翻译：

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北极山地冰川还能存活多久？斯瓦尔巴群岛 Austre Lovénbreen 的案例研究

为了研究北极山谷冰川对全球气候变化的响应，使用 Elmer/Ice 冰流模型研究了斯瓦尔巴群岛典型的多温冰川 Austre Lovenbreen 的长期变化。演变和特征，包括体积、面积、冰厚度、径流和冰川消失的时间和方式，都被预测。首先，进行稳态模拟以确定冰流模型的最佳参数，然后将其用于模拟冰川动力学。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会发布的第五次评估报告中的 21 世纪北极变暖趋势，在三种假设气候情景下模拟了冰川的演变：悲观、高概率和乐观。结果预测，在所有三种情况下，冰川都会退缩直至消失，它的消失时间可能大约为 111 年（到 2120 年）。在所有情况下，冰川体积和面积的减少都会先是缓慢的，然后是快速的，最后又是缓慢的。特别是在高概率情景下，到2070年冰川径流将显着增加，峰值径流将是当前值的两倍。