Many legal cases require decisions about causality, responsibility or blame, and these may be based on statistical data. However, causal inferences from such data are beset by subtle conceptual and practical difficulties, and in general it is, at best, possible to identify the "probability of causation" as lying between certain empirically informed limits. These limits can be refined and improved if we can obtain additional information, from statistical or scientific data, relating to the internal workings of the causal processes. In this paper we review and extend recent work in this area, where additional information may be available on covariate and/or mediating variables.

中文翻译：

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因果关系的概率1

许多法律案件需要关于因果关系、责任或过错的决定，而这些可能基于统计数据。然而，这些数据的因果推断受到微妙的概念和实践困难的困扰，一般来说，最多只能将“因果关系概率”识别为介于某些经验上知情的限制之间。如果我们可以从统计或科学数据中获得与因果过程的内部运作相关的额外信息，则可以改进和改进这些限制。在本文中，我们回顾并扩展了该领域的最新工作，其中可能提供有关协变量和/或中介变量的其他信息。