We are told that electric vehicles, cars in particular, will be good for the environment. But what exactly might this mean? It is true that end use emissions will be significantly reduced when we move from fossil fuels to green energy sources? Assuming that the demand for such cars, including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in particular will grow, we can expect a significant number of such vehicles manufactured in future years. Given the potentially relatively lower cost (fewer moving parts) compared to internal combustion engine vehicles as well as the significantly lower usage costs per kilometre, we would expect a level of uptake that could impact on the performance of the road network (perhaps increased congestion and crash risk) but also a concomitant reduced use of public transport and fuel excise loss. In this paper, we apply the MetroScan modelling system in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area (GSMA) over the period 2021–2056 to identify the likely impact that the growth in BEV ownership and use will have on vehicle kilometres, modal shares, government revenues, levels of CO₂ emissions and other impacts. Moreover, we investigate the introduction of a BEV usage charge proposed in Australia to see what it might do to these key performance indicators and whether it can offset the adverse effects during BEV uptake such as government fuel excise revenue loss and increased congestion.

我们被告知电动汽车，尤其是汽车，对环境有益。但这究竟意味着什么？当我们从化石燃料转向绿色能源时，终端使用排放真的会显着减少吗？假设对此类汽车，尤其是纯电动汽车 (BEV) 的需求将会增长，我们可以预期未来几年会生产大量此类汽车。鉴于与内燃机车辆相比，潜在的成本相对较低（移动部件较少）以及每公里的使用成本显着降低，我们预计可能会影响道路网络性能的吸收水平（可能会增加拥堵和撞车风险），但同时也减少了公共交通的使用和燃油消费税的损失。在本文中，₂排放和其他影响。此外，我们调查了澳大利亚提议的 BEV 使用费的引入，以了解它可能对这些关键绩效指标产生什么影响，以及它是否可以抵消 BEV 使用过程中的不利影响，例如政府燃油消费税收入损失和拥堵加剧。