This study foregrounds the metropolitan area as a key driver of contemporary neighborhood economic change. The recent “Great Divergence” in metros’ economic, social, and political conditions suggests metros increasingly stratify neighborhood trajectories. Yet, many studies only consider neighborhood-level predictors of change or implicate metro-level factors more applicable to the twentieth century (e.g., manufacturing exposure) than the twenty first. To clarify the metro's contemporary role, this study synthesizes multiple literatures, deriving novel hypotheses that link metropolitan skill agglomeration and income segregation to neighborhood economic change, and then tests them using multilevel models and data drawn from multiple sources, including the census, Opportunity Insights, and National Transit Database. Analyses, based on all neighborhoods within 325 metros between 2000 and the mid-2010s, suggest over 10% of the variance in neighborhood median income change resides between, rather than within, metros. As predicted, metro skill agglomeration dynamics appear to boost neighborhoods’ median incomes, and metro income segregation depresses them. Results remain intact after accounting for state fixed effects and controls for five plausible alternative explanations of metro effects. Overall, the study provides a theoretical and empirical foundation for future neighborhood change research highlighting the metro in general, and two higher order spatial processes—income segregation and skill agglomeration—in particular.

本研究将大都市区视为当代邻里经济变化的主要驱动力。最近都市经济、社会和政治状况的“大分化”表明都市越来越分层邻里轨迹。然而，许多研究只考虑了邻里层面的变化预测因素，或者暗示了比 20 世纪更适用于 20 世纪的都市层面因素（例如，制造业暴露）。为了阐明地铁在当代的作用，本研究综合了多种文献，推导出将大都市技能集聚和收入隔离与社区经济变化联系起来的新假设，然后使用多层次模型和来自多个来源的数据进行测试，包括人口普查、Opportunity Insights、和国家交通数据库。分析，基于 2000 年至 2010 年代中期 325 个地铁内的所有社区，表明超过 10% 的社区收入中位数变化的差异存在于地铁之间，而不是内部。正如预测的那样，地铁技能集聚动态似乎提高了社区的收入中位数，而地铁收入隔离则抑制了他们。在考虑了州固定效应和对地铁效应的五种可能的替代解释进行控制后，结果保持不变。总体而言，该研究为未来的邻里变化研究提供了理论和实证基础，重点突出了地铁，尤其是两个更高阶的空间过程——收入隔离和技能集聚。而不是内部，地铁。正如预测的那样，地铁技能集聚动态似乎提高了社区的收入中位数，而地铁收入隔离则抑制了他们。在考虑了州固定效应和对地铁效应的五种可能的替代解释进行控制后，结果保持不变。总体而言，该研究为未来的邻里变化研究提供了理论和实证基础，重点突出了地铁，尤其是两个更高阶的空间过程——收入隔离和技能集聚。而不是内部，地铁。正如预测的那样，地铁技能集聚动态似乎提高了社区的收入中位数，而地铁收入隔离则抑制了他们。在考虑了州固定效应和对地铁效应的五种可能的替代解释进行控制后，结果保持不变。总体而言，该研究为未来的邻里变化研究提供了理论和实证基础，重点突出了地铁，尤其是两个更高阶的空间过程——收入隔离和技能集聚。