Abstract: There are various dimensions of the COVID-19 warning problem. For example, how did the scientific, intelligence, and strategic studies communities issue accurate diffuse warnings of the growing risk of a global pandemic? This raises the possibility that the warnings issued might have been misleading because they focus on the disease’s details and not on the second- and third-order effects that would significantly impede national and global responses to coronavirus. The pandemic outbreak also led to the acceleration of ongoing work in the pharmaceutical industry, producing “game-changing” medical advances that might soon be replicated in other fields. It may be time to develop a specialized organization—a warning “skunkworks”—whose sole mission is to identify and assess the impact of novel developments in both domestic and international settings.

摘要：COVID-19 警告问题有多种维度。例如，科学、情报和战略研究界如何就全球大流行的风险不断增加发出准确的扩散警告？这增加了发出的警告可能具有误导性的可能性，因为它们关注的是疾病的细节，而不是会严重阻碍国家和全球应对冠状病毒的二级和三级影响。大流行的爆发还导致制药行业正在进行的工作加速，产生了“改变游戏规则”的医学进步，这些进步可能很快就会在其他领域复制。可能是时候建立一个专门的组织——一个警告“臭鼬工厂”——其唯一使命是识别和评估国内和国际环境中新发展的影响。