The NARCliM project contributes to the CORDEX initiative for Australasia. The first generation of NARCliM (N1.0) used CMIP3 global climate models (GCMs) and provided near and far future estimates of climate change across Australasia at 50-km and southeast Australia at 10-km resolution under a business-as-usual climate scenario. However, multiple sets of 20-year periods in N1.0 did not permit analysis of long-term, inter-annual to decadal trends across the 21st century. Feedback on user needs for regional climate information revealed the desire for multiple emission scenarios and use of newer CMIP5 GCMs for dynamical downscaling. These limitations led to development of the second iteration of NARCliM, namely NARCliM1.5 (N1.5). The N1.5 downscaling exercise uses CMIP5 GCMs and is temporally expanded to cover 150 years (1950–2100) for two future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). N1.5 simulations remain at the 50-km and 10 km resolutions over the same domains as N1.0, thus producing an expanded and complementary data set for regional climate change. N1.5 simulations substantially improve over N1.0 in capturing the seasonal patterns and magnitudes of precipitation, including improvements in overall bias. Conversely, N1.5 shows similar results to N1.0 for maximum and minimum temperature, with no substantial improvement in overall bias. N1.5 projections project a hotter and drier future relative to N1.0. The combined N1.0 and N1.5 ensemble provides a wider spread of future climates more representative of that found in the full CMIP5 ensemble. Together, N1.0 and N1.5 ensembles provide an improved, more comprehensive data set for studying climate change.

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NARCliM1.5 简介：评估 1950-2100 年澳大利亚东南部区域气候预测的表现

NARCliM 项目为澳大拉西亚的 CORDEX 计划做出了贡献。第一代 NARCliM (N1.0) 使用 CMIP3 全球气候模型 (GCM)，并在一切照旧的气候下以 10 公里的分辨率提供了澳大利亚东南部 50 公里和澳大利亚东南部气候变化的近期和远期估计设想。然而，N1.0 中的多组 20 年期不允许分析 21 世纪的长期、年际到十年的趋势。用户对区域气候信息需求的反馈表明需要多种排放情景和使用更新的 CMIP5 GCM 进行动态降尺度。这些限制导致了 NARCliM 的第二次迭代的开发，即 NARCliM1.5 (N1.5)。N1。5 降尺度练习使用 CMIP5 GCM，并在时间上扩展到涵盖 150 年（1950-2100）的两个未来代表性浓度途径（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）。N1.5 模拟在与 N1.0 相同的域上保持 50 公里和 10 公里的分辨率，从而为区域气候变化生成扩展和补充数据集。N1.5 模拟在捕捉季节性模式和降水量方面比 N1.0 有显着改进，包括总体偏差的改进。相反，对于最高和最低温度，N1.5 显示与 N1.0 相似的结果，总体偏差没有实质性改善。相对于 N1.0，N1.5 预测预测了一个更热、更干燥的未来。N1.0 和 N1.5 组合提供了更广泛的未来气候，更能代表完整的 CMIP5 组合中的气候。一起，N1。