The literature on unintended consequences of economic sanctions is well developed, but few studies have addressed terrorism in target states, and none have assessed whether that terrorism becomes more effective when sanctions are in place. In this study, we test whether economic sanctions lead to an increase in the lethality of terrorism. Using data from multiple sources, we find that while sanctions are unrelated to the rate of success of terrorist attacks, they are positively associated with the number of fatalities resulting from terrorist attacks. These findings further the need for policymakers to consider the consequences sanctions have on the target country populace.

关于经济制裁的意外后果的文献很丰富，但很少有研究涉及目标国家的恐怖主义，也没有人评估实施制裁时恐怖主义是否会变得更有效。在这项研究中，我们测试经济制裁是否会导致恐怖主义的杀伤力增加。使用来自多个来源的数据，我们发现虽然制裁与恐怖袭击的成功率无关，但它们与恐怖袭击造成的死亡人数呈正相关。这些发现进一步表明决策者需要考虑制裁对目标国家民众的影响。