Context

For many organisms, responses to climate change (CC) will be affected by land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC). However, the extent to which LULCC is concurrently considered in climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) is unclear.

Objectives

We identify trends in inclusion of LULCC and CC in vulnerability assessments of species and the direction and magnitude of their combined effect on biodiversity. Further, we examine the effect size of LULCC and CC in driving changes in “currencies” of response to CC, such as distribution, abundance and survival.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review of articles published in the last 30 years that focused on CCVA and accounted for impacts of both CC and LULCC.

Results

Across 116 studies, 34% assumed CC and LULCC would act additively, while 66% allowed for interactive effects. The majority of CCVAs reported similar effect sizes for CC and LULCC, although they affected different CCVA currencies. Only 14% of the studies showed larger effects of CC than of LULCC. Another 14% showed larger effects of LULCC than CC, specifically for dispersal, population viability, and reproduction, which tend to be strongly affected by fragmentation and disturbance. Although most studies found that LULCC and CC had negative effects on species currencies, in some cases effects were neutral or even positive.

Conclusions

CCVAs that incorporate LULCC provided a better account of drivers of vulnerability, and highlight aspects of drivers that are generally more amenable to on-the-ground management intervention than CCVAs that focus on CC alone.

中文翻译：

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土地利用和土地覆盖变化在生物多样性气候变化脆弱性评估中​​的作用：系统评价

语境

对于许多生物来说，对气候变化 (CC) 的反应将受到土地利用和土地覆盖变化 (LULCC) 的影响。然而，在气候变化脆弱性评估 (CCVA) 中同时考虑 LULCC 的程度尚不清楚。

目标

我们确定了将 LULCC 和 CC 纳入物种脆弱性评估的趋势以及它们对生物多样性的综合影响的方向和程度。此外，我们检查了 LULCC 和 CC 在驱动对 CC 响应的“货币”变化方面的影响大小，例如分布、丰度和存活率。

方法

我们对过去 30 年发表的文章进行了系统的文献回顾，这些文章侧重于 CCVA 并考虑了 CC 和 LULCC 的影响。

结果

在 116 项研究中，34% 的人认为 CC 和 LULCC 会相加作用，而 66% 的人允许交互作用。大多数 CCVA 报告 CC 和 LULCC 的影响大小相似，尽管它们影响不同的 CCVA 货币。只有 14% 的研究显示 CC 的影响大于 LULCC。另外 14% 的人显示 LULCC 的影响比 CC 大，特别是在散布、种群生存力和繁殖方面，这些影响往往受到碎片和干扰的强烈影响。虽然大多数研究发现 LULCC 和 CC 对物种货币有负面影响，但在某些情况下，影响是中性的，甚至是积极的。

结论

包含 LULCC 的 CCVA 更好地说明了脆弱性的驱动因素，并突出了与仅关注 CC 的 CCVA 相比，通常更易于接受实地管理干预的驱动因素的各个方面。