In 2006, the Brazilian Forest Service (SFB) started an ambitious program to establish forest concessions so as to provide a legal framework for long-term sustainable timber production in Amazonian forests. Forest concessions in the Brazilian Amazon currently cover only 1.6 million ha (Mha) but we estimate the area of all potential concessions as 35 Mha. This paper assessed the conditions under which the present and potential concession system can ensure an annual production of 11 Mm³. yr⁻¹ to meet the estimated present timber demand. For this we used the volume dynamics with differential equations model (VDDE) calibrated for the Amazon Basin with a Bayesian framework with data from 3500 ha of forest plots monitored for as long as 30 years after selective logging. Predictions of commercial volume recovery rates vary with location.

We tested 27 different scenarios by using combinations of initial proportion of commercial volume, logging intensity and cutting cycle length. These scenarios were then applied to the current area of concessions and to the area of all potential concessions (35 Mha). Under current logging regulations and the current concession area (mean logging intensity of 15–20 m³.ha⁻¹, a harvest cycle of 35 years and an initial commercial timber volume proportion of 20%), timber production can be maintained only for a single cutting cycle (35 years). Only the scenario with a logging intensity of 10 m³ha⁻¹ every 60 years with a 90% initial proportion of commercial timber species can be considered as sustainable. Under this scenario, the maximum annual production with the present concession areas is 159,000 m³ (157–159), or less than 2% of the present annual production of 11 Mm³. When considering all potential concession areas (35 Mha), under current rules, the total annual production is 10 Mm³yr⁻¹ (2–17 Mm³yr⁻¹, 95% credibility interval) but is not maintained after the first logging cycle. Under the most sustainable scenario (see above) and a concession area of 35 Mha, the long-term sustainable annual production of timber reaches only 3.4 Mm³yr⁻¹. Based on these results we argue that the concession system will not be able to supply the timber demand without substantial reforms in natural forest management practices and in the wood industry sector. We argue that alternative sources of timber, including plantations linked with forest restoration initiatives, must be promoted.

2006 年，巴西林务局 (SFB) 启动了一项雄心勃勃的计划，旨在建立森林特许权，以便为亚马逊森林的长期可持续木材生产提供法律框架。巴西亚马逊地区的森林特许权目前仅覆盖 160 万公顷 (Mha)，但我们估计所有潜在特许权的面积为 35 Mha。本文评估了现有和潜在特许权制度可以确保年产量 11 毫米^{3 的条件}。年^-1以满足目前估计的木材需求。为此，我们使用了体积动力学和微分方程模型 (VDDE)，针对亚马逊盆地使用贝叶斯框架进行了校准，其中数据来自 3500 公顷的森林地块，在选择性伐木后长达 30 年进行了监测。商业体积回收率的预测因地点而异。

我们通过使用商业量初始比例、采伐强度和采伐周期长度的组合测试了 27 个不同的场景。然后将这些情景应用于当前的特许权区域和所有潜在的特许权区域（35 Mha）。在现行的伐木规定和目前的特许区（平均伐木强度为 15-20 m ³ .ha ^-1，采伐周期为 35 年，初始商业木材体积比例为 20%）下，木材生产只能维持单次切割周期（35 年）。只有测井强度为 10 m ³ ha ^{-1 的情况}每 60 年具有 90% 初始比例的商业木材可以被认为是可持续的。在这种情况下，目前特许区的最大年产量为 159,000 m ³ (157–159)，或不到目前 11 Mm ³年产量的 2% 。当考虑所有可能的特许区（35百万公顷），在目前的规则，年生产总量为10mm ³年^-1（2-17毫米³年^-1，95％可信区间），但在第一记录周期之后不保持. 在最可持续的情况下（见上文）和 35 Mha 的特许面积，木材的长期可持续年产量仅达到 3.4 毫米³年^-1。基于这些结果，我们认为，如果不对天然林管理实践和木材工业部门进行实质性改革，特许经营制度将无法满足木材需求。我们认为必须促进替代木材来源，包括与森林恢复计划相关的人工林。