Using administrative data, we study the role of attribution bias in a high-stakes, consequential decision: the choice of a college major. Specifically, we examine the influence of fatigue experienced during exposure to a general education course on whether students choose the major corresponding to that course. To do so, we exploit the conditional random assignment of student course schedules at the United States Military Academy. We find that students who are assigned to an early morning (7:30 AM) section of a general education course are roughly 10% less likely to major in that subject, relative to students assigned to a later time slot for the course. We find similar effects for fatigue generated by having one or more back-to-back courses immediately prior to a general education course that starts later in the day. Finally, we demonstrate that the pattern of results is consistent with attribution bias and difficult to reconcile with competing explanations.

使用行政数据，我们研究了归因偏差在高风险、后果性决策中的作用：选择大学专业。具体而言，我们研究了在接受通识教育课程期间经历的疲劳对学生是否选择与该课程相对应的专业的影响。为此，我们利用美国军事学院学生课程表的条件随机分配。我们发现，相对于被分配到较晚时间段学习该课程的学生，被分配到通识教育课程的清晨（7:30）部分的学生主修该科目的可能性大约低 10%。我们发现在当天晚些时候开始的通识教育课程之前立即进行一门或多门背靠背课程对疲劳产生的影响类似。最后，