This paper examines the transnational dimensions of low-level conflict and state repression. In this regard, special emphasis is placed on the role of political regimes. Drawing on a simple model, we argue that democracy has opposing effects on conflict intensity. On one hand, democracy satisfies demand for political participation and thus reduces conflict potential, while, on the other hand, we highlight that domestic democracy may spur dissatisfaction and conflict abroad, which, in turn, may induce conflict spillovers. As a result, the net effect of democracy on low-level conflict and state repression is ambiguous and depends on the level of democracy in the neighborhood: We predict that democracy is more pacifying in democratic environments and may spur conflict in autocratic environments. By the symmetry of the model, we also predict that democratic environments are more pacifying for democratic countries and may spur conflict in autocracies. Empirical evidence using panel data on different types of low-level conflict and state repression for 160 countries in the period from 1950 to 2011 supports these hypotheses. Additionally, two case studies illustrate the mechanisms of our model.

中文翻译：

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民主与低级冲突和国家镇压的跨国维度

本文考察了低级冲突和国家镇压的跨国维度。在这方面，特别强调政治制度的作用。借鉴一个简单的模型，我们认为民主对冲突强度有相反的影响。一方面，民主满足了对政治参与的需求，从而减少了冲突的可能性，另一方面，我们强调国内民主可能会在国外引发不满和冲突，进而可能引发冲突外溢。因此，民主对低水平冲突和国家镇压的净影响是模棱两可的，并且取决于邻里的民主水平：我们预测民主在民主环境中更加平静，并可能在专制环境中引发冲突。通过模型的对称性，我们还预测，民主环境对民主国家来说更加平和，并可能引发专制国家的冲突。使用 1950 年至 2011 年期间 160 个国家的不同类型的低级别冲突和国家镇压的面板数据的经验证据支持这些假设。此外，两个案例研究说明了我们模型的机制。