The benefits provided by a model of system dynamics are directly related to its correct construction. One of the main challenges in the process of building such models is that they must be able to effectively represent a specific problematic situation. Thus, the main objective of this study is to develop a multi-methodological approach, adapting the problem structuring method of strategic options development and analysis (SODA) in the initial stage of the system dynamics (SD) model. The role of each of them clearly represents the contribution of this study: the SODA in the structuring (representation) phase of the problem and proposition of alternatives and the SD in the evaluation phase of these alternatives. To illustrate its application, the multimethodological approach developed was used to simulate scenarios considering management strategies, and the various variables affecting a water supply system, including population growth, in order to evaluate more “assertive” water management strategy(s) that could have been adopted to address the water crisis (2012–2017) and analysis future scenarios. The results show that, based on the vision of specialists with enough experience for the case studied, it was possible to structure the problem, and therefore propose a set of strategies (alternatives), which were: water loss control, wastewater reuse, application of more efficient tariffs to reduce water waste, inter-basin water transfer, and awareness regarding the use of water resources. After the survey of alternatives, scenarios were simulated considering these water management strategies. Simulation results showed that actions taken on the demand side would only be effective for a short period of water scarcity, (for example, the impact of the scarcity-based tariff on water consumption reduction). For severe drought scenarios and with a water producing system heavily dependent on rainfall, such action would no longer be efficient. However, water supply management-oriented strategies, e.g., inter-basin water transfers (PISF) and wastewater reuse, are highly effective in securing water supply and preventing water supply collapse in the region. The development of this multi-methodological approach is expected to be useful to support managers in the decision-making and implementation of water management strategies.

中文翻译：

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开发支持供水系统管理的多方法方法

系统动力学模型提供的好处与其正确构建直接相关。构建此类模型过程中的主要挑战之一是它们必须能够有效地表示特定的问题情况。因此，本研究的主要目标是开发一种多方法方法，在系统动力学 (SD) 模型的初始阶段适应战略选择开发和分析 (SODA) 的问题结构化方法。他们每个人的作用都清楚地代表了本研究的贡献：问题的结构化（表示）阶段的 SODA 和备选方案的提议以及这些备选方案评估阶段的 SD。为了说明其应用，开发的多方法方法用于模拟考虑管理策略的场景，以及影响供水系统的各种变量，包括人口增长，以评估本可用于解决水危机（2012-2017 年）并分析未来情景的更“果断”的水资源管理战略。结果表明，基于对案例研究有足够经验的专家的愿景，可以对问题进行结构化，因此提出了一套策略（替代方案），它们是：失水控制、废水回用、应用更有效的关税以减少水资源浪费、跨流域调水以及提高对水资源使用的认识。在对替代方案进行调查之后，模拟了考虑这些水管理策略的情景。模拟结果表明，需求侧采取的行动只会在短期缺水时有效（例如，基于稀缺性的关税对减少用水量的影响）。对于严重干旱情况和严重依赖降雨的产水系统，此类行动将不再有效。然而，以供水管理为导向的战略，例如跨流域调水 (PISF) 和废水回用，在确保该地区的供水和防止供水崩溃方面非常有效。预计这种多方法方法的发展将有助于支持管理人员进行水资源管理战略的决策和实施。对于严重干旱情况和严重依赖降雨的产水系统，此类行动将不再有效。然而，以供水管理为导向的战略，例如跨流域调水 (PISF) 和废水回用，在确保该地区的供水和防止供水崩溃方面非常有效。预计这种多方法方法的发展将有助于支持管理人员进行水资源管理战略的决策和实施。对于严重干旱情况和严重依赖降雨的产水系统，此类行动将不再有效。然而，以供水管理为导向的战略，例如跨流域调水 (PISF) 和废水回用，在确保该地区的供水和防止供水崩溃方面非常有效。预计这种多方法方法的发展将有助于支持管理人员进行水资源管理战略的决策和实施。