Floods are the most common and damaging natural disaster in Bangladesh, and the effects of floods on public health have increased significantly in recent decades, particularly among lower socioeconomic populations. Assessments of social vulnerability on flood-induced health outcomes typically focus on local to regional scales; a notable gap remains in comprehensive, large-scale assessments that may foster disaster management practices. In this study, socioeconomic, health, and coping capacity vulnerability and composite social-health vulnerability are assessed using both equal-weight and principal-component approaches using 26 indicators across Bangladesh. Results indicate that vulnerable zones exist in the northwest riverine areas, northeast floodplains, and southwest region, potentially affecting 42 million people (26 % of the total population). Subsequently, the vulnerability measures are linked to flood forecast and satellite inundation information to evaluate their potential for predicting actual flood impact indices (distress, damage, disruption, and health) based on the immense August 2017 flood event. Overall, the forecast-based equally weighted vulnerability measures perform best. Specifically, socioeconomic and coping capacity vulnerability measures strongly align with the distress, disruption, and health impact records observed. Additionally, the forecast-based composite social-health vulnerability index also correlates well with the impact indices, illustrating its utility in identifying predominantly vulnerable regions. These findings suggest the benefits and practicality of this approach to assess both thematic and comprehensive spatial vulnerabilities, with the potential to support targeted and coordinated public disaster management and health practices.

中文翻译：

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预测孟加拉国对洪水的社会和健康脆弱性

洪水是孟加拉国最常见、最具破坏性的自然灾害，近几十年来，洪水对公共健康的影响显着增加，尤其是在社会经济地位较低的人群中。对洪水导致的健康结果的社会脆弱性评估通常侧重于地方到区域范围；在可能促进灾害管理做法的全面、大规模评估方面仍存在显着差距。在这项研究中，社会经济、健康和应对能力脆弱性以及综合社会健康脆弱性通过孟加拉国的 26 个指标使用等权重和主成分方法进行评估。结果表明，西北沿江地区、东北洪泛区和西南地区存在脆弱区，可能影响 4200 万人（占总人口的 26%）。随后，脆弱性措施与洪水预报和卫星淹没信息相关联，以评估它们根据 2017 年 8 月的巨大洪水事件预测实际洪水影响指数（遇险、破坏、破坏和健康）的潜力。总体而言，基于预测的等权脆弱性衡量指标表现最佳。具体而言，社会经济和应对能力脆弱性措施与观察到的痛苦、破坏和健康影响记录密切相关。此外，基于预测的综合社会健康脆弱性指数也与影响指数密切相关，说明其在识别主要脆弱地区方面的效用。这些发现表明这种方法在评估专题和综合空间脆弱性方面的好处和实用性，