The Barents Sea and its marine ecosystem is exposed to many different processes related to the seasonal light variability, formation and melting of sea-ice, wind-induced mixing, and exchange of heat and nutrients with neighbouring ocean regions. A global model for the RCP4.5 scenario was downscaled, evaluated, and combined with a biophysical model to study how future variability and trends in temperature, sea-ice concentration, light, and wind-induced mixing potentially affect the lower trophic levels in the Barents Sea marine ecosystem. During the integration period (2010–2070), only a modest change in climate variables and biological production was found, compared to the inter-annual and decadal variability. The most prominent change was projected for the mid-2040s with a sudden decrease in biological production, largely controlled by covarying changes in heat inflow, wind, and sea-ice extent. The northernmost parts exhibited increased access to light during the productive season due to decreased sea-ice extent, leading to increased primary and secondary production in periods of low sea-ice concentrations. In the southern parts, variable access to nutrients as a function of wind-induced mixing and mixed layer depth were found to be the most dominating factors controlling variability in primary and secondary production.

中文翻译：

---

气候波动中的巴伦支海浮游生物生产和控制因素

巴伦支海及其海洋生态系统面临着许多不同的过程，这些过程与季节性光照变化、海冰的形成和融化、风引起的混合以及与邻近海洋区域的热量和养分交换有关。对 RCP4.5 情景的全球模型进行了缩减、评估并与生物物理模型相结合，以研究温度、海冰浓度、光和风引起的混合的未来变化和趋势如何可能影响海洋中较低的营养水平。巴伦支海海洋生态系统。在整合期间（2010-2070 年），与年际和年代际变率相比，仅发现气候变量和生物产量的适度变化。预计 2040 年代中期最显着的变化是生物产量突然下降，很大程度上受热流入、风和海冰范围的共同变化控制。由于海冰面积减少，最北部地区在生产季节的光照增加，导致在海冰浓度较低的时期初级和次级产量增加。在南部地区，作为风引起的混合和混合层深度的函数，养分的可变获取是控制初级和次级生产可变性的最主要因素。