Abstract Although Irish winter wheat yields are among the highest globally, increases in the profitability of this crop are required to maintain its economic viability. However, in order to determine if efforts to further increase Irish wheat yields are likely to be successful, an accurate estimation of the yield potential is required for different regions within Ireland. A winter wheat yield potential model (WWYPM) was developed, which estimates the maximum water-limited yield achievable, within the confines of current genetic resources and technologies, using parameters for winter wheat growth and development observed recently in Ireland and a minor amount of daily meteorological input (maximum and minimum daily temperature, total daily rainfall and total daily incident radiation). The WWYPM is composed of three processes: (i) an estimation of potential green area index, (ii) an estimation of light interception and biomass accumulation and (iii) an estimation of biomass partitioning to grain yield. Model validation indicated that WWYPM estimations of water-limited yield potential (YPw) were significantly related to maximum yields recorded in variety evaluation trials as well as regional average and maximum farm yields, reflecting the model’s sensitivity to alterations in the climatic environment with spatial and seasonal variations. Simulations of YPw for long-term average weather data at 12 sites located at spatially contrasting regions of Ireland indicated that the typical YPw varied between 15.6 and 17.9 t/ha, with a mean of 16.7 t/ha at 15% moisture content. These results indicate that the majority of sites in Ireland have the potential to grow high-yielding crops of winter wheat when the effects of very high rainfall and other stresses such as disease incidence and nutrient deficits are not considered.

中文翻译：

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使用简单的生长和发育模型评估爱尔兰空间不同地点的限水冬小麦产量潜力

摘要 尽管爱尔兰冬小麦的产量是全球最高的，但需要提高该作物的盈利能力以维持其经济活力。然而，为了确定进一步提高爱尔兰小麦产量的努力是否有可能取得成功，需要对爱尔兰不同地区的产量潜力进行准确估计。开发了一个冬小麦产量潜力模型 (WWYPM)，该模型使用最近在爱尔兰观察到的冬小麦生长和发育参数和少量每日气象输入（最高和最低日温度、日总降雨量和日总入射辐射）。WWYPM 由三个过程组成：(i) 潜在绿地指数的估计，(ii) 光拦截和生物量积累的估计，以及 (iii) 生物量分配到谷物产量的估计。模型验证表明，WWYPM 对限水产量潜力 (YPw) 的估计与品种评价试验中记录的最大产量以及区域平均和最大农场产量显着相关，反映了模型对气候环境随空间和季节变化的敏感性变化。位于爱尔兰空间对比区域的 12 个地点的长期平均天气数据的 YPw 模拟表明，典型的 YPw 在 15.6 至 17.9 吨/公顷之间变化，在 15% 的水分含量下平均为 16.7 吨/公顷。