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Climate change impact analysis using bias-corrected multiple global climate models on rice and wheat yield
Journal of Water & Climate Change ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-01 , DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2020.191
Madhuri Dubey 1 , Ashok Mishra 1 , Rajendra Singh 1
Affiliation  

Rice and wheat, two staple food grain crops, play a key role in farmers' income and food security. The response of these crops towards climate change is heterogeneous and uncertain. Therefore, it becomes essential to analyse the impact of climate change on these crops. An investigation was performed to analyse the impact of climate change on rice and wheat yield and to quantify the uncertainties in the yield predictions in West Bengal, India. The climatic projections from eight global climate models were used to simulate the rice and wheat yields in all districts of West Bengal. A quantile mapping method was used to correct systematic biases of daily rainfall, solar radiation and temperature. The corrected data were then used for driving crop environment and resource synthesis models for yield simulations. Results reveal that rice yield is expected to reduce by 7–9% in the 2020s, 8–14% in the 2050s and 8–15% in the 2080s, whereas wheat yield is expected to go down by 18–20% in the 2020s, 20–28% in the 2050s and 18–33% in the 2080s. These reductions signify that rice and wheat yield is more likely to decline under the future climate change condition, which may affect the regional food sustainability.



中文翻译:

使用偏差校正的多个全球气候模型对水稻和小麦产量的气候变化影响分析

水稻和小麦是两种主粮作物,对农民增收和粮食安全起着关键作用。这些作物对气候变化的反应是异质和不确定的。因此,分析气候变化对这些作物的影响变得至关重要。进行了一项调查,以分析气候变化对水稻和小麦产量的影响,并量化印度西孟加拉邦产量预测的不确定性。来自八个全球气候模型的气候预测用于模拟西孟加拉邦所有地区的水稻和小麦产量。分位数映射方法用于校正日降雨量、太阳辐射和温度的系统偏差。然后将校正后的数据用于驱动作物环境和资源合成模型以进行产量模拟。结果显示,预计水稻产量将在 2020 年代减少 7-9%,在 2050 年代减少 8-14%,在 2080 年代减少 8-15%,而小麦产量预计在 2020 年代减少 18-20% ,2050 年代为 20-28%,2080 年代为 18-33%。这些减少意味着在未来的气候变化条件下,水稻和小麦的产量更有可能下​​降,这可能会影响区域粮食的可持续性。

更新日期:2021-06-11
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