To enhance understanding of the interplay between unemployment and sickness absence and disability retirement, the aim of this study was to examine how changes in area-level unemployment rates are associated with changes in sickness absence and disability retirement rates in a longitudinal setting. Municipality-level time-series data were collected on unemployment, sickness absence, disability retirement and covariates from databases for Finnish municipalities for years 2003–2017 (n = 4425 municipality–year observations). Fixed effects panel regression models were used to analyse how changes in unemployment rates predict changes in sickness absence and disability retirement rates when comparing consecutive years. The results showed that when examining yearly cross-sections, a higher level of unemployment in the municipality was associated with higher sickness absence and disability retirement rates. However, longitudinal assessment of consecutive years with panel regression models showed that a one percentage point increase in the municipality-level unemployment rate was associated with a decrease both in the sickness absence rate (−1.3%, p < 0.001) and in the disability retirement rate (−2.1%, p = 0.011), adjusted for simultaneous changes in demographic and socio-economic covariates, morbidity and economic situation of the municipality. The results indicate that unemployment and disability benefits partly act as substitutes for each other. Unemployment and disability rates should be assessed together to reach a more complete understanding of the level of non-employment overall and in different areas.

中文翻译：

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失业率的变化影响疾病缺勤率和残疾退休率：一项市级小组研究

为了加深对失业、病假和伤残退休之间相互作用的理解，本研究的目的是在纵向背景下研究地区层面失业率的变化与病假和伤残退休率变化之间的关系。2003-2017 年芬兰市政当局的数据库收集了有关失业、疾病缺勤、残疾退休和协变量的市政级时间序列数据（n= 4425 个城市-年观测值）。固定效应面板回归模型用于分析在比较连续年份时失业率的变化如何预测疾病缺勤和残疾退休率的变化。结果表明，在检查年度横截面时，该市较高的失业率与较高的病假和残疾退休率有关。然而，使用面板回归模型对连续年份的纵向评估表明，市级失业率上升 1 个百分点与疾病缺勤率 (-1.3%, p < 0.001) 和残疾退休率下降有关率 (-2.1%, p= 0.011)，根据人口和社会经济协变量、发病率和城市经济状况的同时变化进行调整。结果表明，失业救济金和伤残救济金部分地相互替代。失业率和伤残率应该一起评估，以更全面地了解整体和不同领域的非就业水平。