Increases in energy efficiency are reduced by the rebound effect. Efficiency gains on the micro level do not lead to proportionate reductions of energy consumption on the macro level. The German energy-economy model PANTA RHEI is applied to better understand the rebound effect. To get more robust estimates micro data from a cost structure survey of the German manufacturing sector was used to derive price elasticities of energy demand. The mesoeconomic rebound effect of an autonomous increase in energy efficiency at the industry level in manufacturing is between 7% in 2021 and 12% in 2030. The macroeconomic rebound effect lies between 12% in 2021 and 18% in 2030. Inclusion of necessary investment and assumptions of higher elasticities of substitution increase the effects. Rebound effects limit the scope of technology-driven efficiency improvements and must be considered in the design of ambitious energy efficiency programs and climate policies.

反弹效应降低了能源效率的提高。微观层面的效率提升不会导致宏观层面能源消耗的相应减少。应用德国能源经济模型 PANTA RHEI 来更好地理解回弹效应。为了获得更可靠的估计，德国制造业成本结构调查的微观数据被用来推导能源需求的价格弹性。制造业行业层面能源效率自主提高的中观经济反弹效应在 2021 年的 7% 和 2030 年的 12% 之间。宏观经济的反弹效应在 2021 年的 12% 和 2030 年的 18% 之间。包括必要的投资和更高替代弹性的假设会增加效果。