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Influence of the strongest positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki event on the 2019 Indian summer monsoon
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans ( IF 1.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101235
Syam Sankar , P. Vijaykumar , S. Abhilash , K. Mohanakumar

The year 2019 experienced an excess monsoon season over the Indian region, with the seasonal rainfall being 110 % of the long period average (LPA). Several zones across the country suffered multiple extreme rainfall events and flood situations resulting in a massive loss of life and property. The first half of 2019 experienced a moderate El Niño Modoki event that lasted till mid-summer. Another important feature of 2019 was the strongest recorded positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that lasted approximately seven months from May to November. This study has examined the reasons for the intra-seasonal variability of rainfall over India during the 2019 monsoon using available remote sensing and reanalysis data. Our analysis has shown that the presence of El Niño and the formation of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) in the Arabian Sea were unfavorable for the monsoon onset and its northward advancement during June. However, the Walker circulation associated with El Niño helped strengthen the IOD developed early in the Indian Ocean, much before the monsoon onset. The anomalously strong IOD strengthened the monsoon circulation during July-September and resulted in excess rainfall over India.



中文翻译:

最强正印度洋偶极子和厄尔尼诺莫多基事件对 2019 年印度夏季风的影响

2019 年印度地区经历了季风过剩,季节性降雨量为长期平均值 (LPA) 的 110%。全国多个地区遭受了多次极端降雨事件和洪水灾害,造成大量生命和财产损失。2019 年上半年经历了一场持续到仲夏的温和厄尔尼诺莫多奇事件。2019 年的另一个重要特征是有记录以来最强的正印度洋偶极子 (IOD),从 5 月到 11 月持续了大约七个月。本研究使用可用的遥感和再分析数据研究了 2019 年季风期间印度降雨的季节性变化的原因。我们的分析表明,厄尔尼诺现象的存在和阿拉伯海极强气旋风暴 (VSCS) 的形成不利于 6 月季风的爆发和向北推进。然而,与厄尔尼诺现象相关的沃克环流有助于加强印度洋早期形成的 IOD,远在季风爆发之前。异常强烈的 IOD 加强了 7-9 月的季风环流,并导致印度上空降雨过多。

更新日期:2021-06-15
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