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The potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of key tree species and Cordyceps in Bhutan: Implications for ecological functions and rural livelihoods
Ecological Modelling ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-11 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109650
Kunzang Choden , Craig R. Nitschke , Stephen B. Stewart , Rodney J. Keenan

Rural communities in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan are dependant on natural capital for their livelihoods. Climate change impacts on ecosystem could have serious consequences for these communities but little research has been done to explore these potential impacts. In this study, we used Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models to model current and potential future distribution of major timber species (Abies densa, Pinus wallichiana, Tsuga dumosa), fuelwood species (Quercus spp, Betula spp, Betula utilis, Rhododendron spp, Rhododendron arboreum) and an important non-timber resource (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Bhutan Himalayan region. Models were based on species presence and absence data from 575 plots and a new high-resolution climate dataset developed for Bhutan. Future projections were based on IPCC's representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s in Bhutan. Mean annual temperature and precipitation of driest quarters were found to be the most influential variables in modelling the current distribution of these species, with the distribution of most of the species projected to decrease significantly and shift to higher elevations. The current distribution of Ophiocordyceps sinensis was modelled to decrease by 79% at the national level with only 21% range overlap between current and future distributions. Current distribution of timber species like Abies densa and Tsuga dumosa were modelled to decline by 98% and 99% respectively at national level with very low range overlaps between current and future distribution suggesting high species vulnerability to climate change. In contrast, fuel wood species like Betula spp, Quercus spp, Rhododendron arboreum all exhibited less vulnerability to climate change with over 50% of their current range overlapping with future distribution across Bhutan and in the Nikachu watershed. These potential changes in distribution patterns of these species could impact on the functions and ecosystem services provided by these species and socio-economic conditions of rural communities reliant on these species for their livelihoods in Bhutan. Lower rates of global greenhouse gas emissions and adoption of adaptation measures and management interventions can reduce these potential impacts.



中文翻译:

气候变化对不丹主要树种和虫草分布的潜在影响:对生态功能和农村生计的影响

不丹喜马拉雅王国的农村社区的生计依赖​​于自然资本。气候变化对生态系统的影响可能对这些社区产生严重后果,但很少有研究探索这些潜在影响。在本研究中,我们使用增强回归树 (BRT) 模型来模拟主要木材物种(冷杉、松树、铁杉)、薪材物种(栎属、桦属、白桦、杜鹃、杜鹃花) 和重要的非木材资源 ( Ophiocordyceps sinensis )) 在不丹喜马拉雅地区。模型基于来自 575 个地块的物种存在和缺失数据以及为不丹开发的新高分辨率气候数据集。未来预测基于 IPCC 2080 年代在不丹的代表性浓度路径 (RCP 8.5)。发现最干燥地区的年平均温度和降水量是对这些物种当前分布进行建模的最有影响的变量,预计大多数物种的分布将显着减少并转移到更高的海拔。Ophiocordyceps sinensis的当前分布被建模为在全国范围内减少了 79%,当前和未来分布之间只有 21% 的范围重叠。目前木材种类的分布,如冷杉Tsuga dumosa被模拟在国家层面分别下降 98% 和 99%,当前和未来分布之间的范围重叠非常低,表明物种对气候变化的脆弱性很高。相比之下,桦树属、栎属、树木杜鹃等薪材树种所有这些都对气候变化的脆弱性较低,其当前范围的 50% 以上与不丹和尼卡丘流域的未来分布重叠。这些物种分布模式的这些潜在变化可能会影响这些物种提供的功能和生态系统服务,以及依赖这些物种在不丹谋生的农村社区的社会经济条件。降低全球温室气体排放率以及采用适应措施和管理干预措施可以减少这些潜在影响。

更新日期:2021-06-11
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