European wintertime precipitation is known to be skilfully estimated in reanalysis data and model simulations since it is highly correlated with large scale, low frequency modes of variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since the NAO is mainly a wintertime mode of variability, the skill of estimating precipitation becomes more limited in other seasons, most importantly in summer, when precipitation is mainly a result of mesoscale convection. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to show the added value of using a high resolution, convection-permitting model to estimate precipitation extremes. The results show that WRF succeeds to correct the failure of ERA-Interim reanalysis to capture the positive trends over the last decades of European extreme precipitation in summer and transition seasons, that are indicated by observational data (E-OBS) and previous literature. Partial improvements are evident using ERA5 reanalysis, specifically in Spring and in Autumn. In winter, changes in European extreme precipitation over the last decades are dominated by variations in the NAO index, and are well reproduced both in reanalysis data and in the high resolution WRF downscaling.

众所周知，欧洲冬季降水可以在再分析数据和模型模拟中得到巧妙估计，因为它与大尺度、低频变异模式（即北大西洋涛动 (NAO)）高度相关。由于 NAO 主要是冬季变率模式，因此估计降水量的技巧在其他季节变得更加有限，最重要的是在夏季，此时降水主要是中尺度对流的结果。在这项研究中，我们使用天气研究和预测 (WRF) 模型来展示使用高分辨率、允许对流的模型来估计极端降水的附加价值。结果表明，WRF 成功地纠正了 ERA-Interim 再分析未能捕捉到过去几十年欧洲夏季和过渡季节极端降水的积极趋势，观察数据 (E-OBS) 和以前的文献表明。使用 ERA5 再分析可以明显看出部分改进，特别是在春季和秋季。在冬季，过去几十年欧洲极端降水的变化主要由 NAO 指数的变化决定，并且在再分析数据和高分辨率 WRF 降尺度中都得到了很好的再现。