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Shaken and Stirred: When Bond Meets Suess–de Vries and Gnevyshev–Ohl
Solar Physics ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s11207-021-01822-4
F. Stefani , R. Stepanov , T. Weier

We argue that the most prominent temporal features of the solar dynamo, in particular the Hale cycle, the Suess–de Vries cycle (associated with variations of the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule), Gleissberg-type cycles, and grand minima can all be explained by combined synchronization with the 11.07-year periodic tidal forcing of the Venus–Earth–Jupiter system and the (mainly) 19.86-year periodic motion of the Sun around the barycenter of the solar system. We present model simulations where grand minima, and clusters thereof, emerge as intermittent and non-periodic events on millennial time scales, very similar to the series of Bond events which were observed throughout the Holocene and the last glacial period. If confirmed, such an intermittent transition to chaos would prevent any long-term prediction of solar activity, notwithstanding the fact that the shorter-term Hale and Suess–de Vries cycles are clocked by planetary motion.



中文翻译:

摇摇欲坠:当邦德遇到苏斯-德弗里斯和格涅维雪夫-奥尔

我们认为,太阳发电机最突出的时间特征,特别是黑尔周期、苏斯-德弗里斯周期(与格涅维雪夫-奥尔规则的变化相关)、格莱斯伯格型周期和极大极小值都可以解释为与金星-地球-木星系统的 11.07 年周期性潮汐强迫和太阳围绕太阳系重心的(主要)19.86 年周期性运动相结合。我们提出了模型模拟,其中极大极小值及其簇在千禧年时间尺度上以间歇性和非周期性事件的形式出现,非常类似于在整个全新世和末次冰期观察到的一系列邦德事件。如果得到证实,这种间歇性的混乱过渡将阻止对太阳活动的任何长期预测,

更新日期:2021-06-10
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