Conway, Brewer, and Rork (CBR) have done a thorough reproduction and replication of Reed. Their analysis extending the time period that I used, while applying the same empirical procedures, convincingly demonstrates that the estimated effect of taxes on state-level economic growth has declined in recent years. In this reply, I reflect on the capacity of the regression procedures used by CBR, Reed, and others to identify causal effects of taxes on economic growth at the state level. I identify challenges to causal inference that make it difficult to translate these findings to advise for policy makers.

中文翻译：

---

对康威、布鲁尔和罗克的回复 (2021)

Conway、Brewer 和 Rork（CBR）对 Reed 进行了彻底的复制和复制。他们的分析延长了我使用的时间段，同时应用了相同的实证程序，令人信服地表明，近年来税收对州级经济增长的估计影响已经下降。在这个答复中，我反思了 CBR、里德和其他人使用的回归程序的能力，以确定税收对州一级经济增长的因果影响。我确定了因果推断的挑战，这些挑战使得难以将这些发现转化为政策制定者的建议。