ABSTRACT: The lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus is a key component of the North East Atlantic ecosystem but little is known about its distribution outside of fished areas. In this study, species distribution models were developed to predict the occurrence and density of sandeels in parts of the North Sea and Celtic Seas regions. A hurdle model was found to be the best fitting model with the highest predictive performance; model evaluation with independent data demonstrated that it had significant discrimination ability across the study region. Percentage silt was the most important variable in predicting occurrence, and percentage sand had a strong influence on density, consistent with past local studies. Slope was also a significant explanatory variable, especially for predicting density, as buried sandeels avoided strongly sloping areas such as the edges of sand banks. A predicted preferred depth range of 30-50 m was consistent with many previous studies, although the depth response did appear partially biased by the depth range investigated in the training data set. Overall, the predicted distribution did not indicate that there were large areas of unexploited habitat. However, some small areas known to be important to sandeel predators were identified by the model. The distribution model helps refine past inferences about sandeel availability to predators and indicates to marine planners potential areas where anthropogenic impacts should be considered.

中文翻译：

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一种经过验证的小砂鳅分布模型

摘要：小沙鳗Ammodytes marinus是东北大西洋生态系统的重要组成部分，但对其在渔区以外的分布知之甚少。在这项研究中，开发了物种分布模型来预测北海和凯尔特海部分地区的沙丁鱼的出现和密度。发现障碍模型是具有最高预测性能的最佳拟合模型；具有独立数据的模型评估表明它在整个研究区域具有显着的区分能力。淤泥百分比是预测发生率的最重要变量，而砂百分比对密度有很大影响，这与过去的当地研究一致。坡度也是一个重要的解释变量，特别是对于预测密度，因为埋藏的沙鳗避开了诸如沙岸边缘等倾斜度很大的区域。30-50 m 的预测首选深度范围与许多以前的研究一致，尽管深度响应确实出现了部分偏差，因为在训练数据集中调查的深度范围。总体而言，预测的分布并未表明存在大面积未开发的栖息地。然而，该模型确定了一些已知对砂鲷捕食者很重要的小区域。分布模型有助于完善过去关于捕食者可用的沙鳗的推论，并向海洋规划者指出应考虑人为影响的潜在区域。预测的分布并未表明存在大面积未开发的栖息地。然而，该模型确定了一些已知对砂鲷捕食者很重要的小区域。分布模型有助于完善过去关于捕食者可用的沙鳗的推论，并向海洋规划者指出应考虑人为影响的潜在区域。预测的分布并未表明存在大面积未开发的栖息地。然而，该模型确定了一些已知对砂鲷捕食者很重要的小区域。分布模型有助于完善过去关于捕食者可用的沙鳗的推论，并向海洋规划者指出应考虑人为影响的潜在区域。