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Satellite-based estimate of intrinsic predictability limits at convective scales over northeast India
Earth and Space Science ( IF 2.312 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-10 , DOI: 10.1029/2019ea000797
Arun Ramanathan, A. N. V. Satyanarayana

Spheroscale estimates are essential not only for incorporating the seemingly incompatible phenomenon of atmospheric convection within the framework of wide-range horizontal and vertical scaling in the atmosphere, but also to make semi-empirical estimates of the storm-scale atmospheric predictability limits. Since spheroscales are extremely variable, this study computes yearly spheroscales during convective weather events over a selected part of northeast India for five different years using the ensemble averaged fluctuations of radar reflectivity from the CloudSat geometric profile dataset. All these spheroscale estimates are consistently less than 100 m and are directly proportional to the maximum reflectivity observed during the corresponding year. This is in agreement with the fact that spheroscales for unstable atmospheric fields is larger than that of stable atmospheric fields. The semi-empirical angle-averaged predictability limits estimated using these spheroscale estimates illustrate that atmospheric fields with larger spheroscales are weakly stable and have smaller intrinsic predictability limits thereby making them less predictable.

中文翻译:

基于卫星对印度东北部对流尺度内在可预测性极限的估计

球尺度估计不仅对于将看似不相容的大气对流现象纳入大气中大范围水平和垂直尺度的框架内,而且对于风暴尺度大气可预测性限制的半经验估计也是必不可少的。由于球尺度变化极大,本研究使用来自 CloudSat 几何剖面数据集的雷达反射率的集合平均波动来计算印度东北部选定地区五年内对流天气事件期间的年度球尺度。所有这些球尺度估计值始终小于 100 m,并且与相应年份观测到的最大反射率成正比。这与不稳定大气场的球尺度大于稳定大气场的球尺度是一致的。使用这些球尺度估计的半经验角度平均可预测性极限表明,具有较大球尺度的大气场稳定性较弱,固有可预测性极限较小,从而使它们的可预测性较差。
更新日期:2021-06-10
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